Trump Becomes First Convicted Ex-President: Could He Govern From Prison if Re-Elected?

Donald J. Trump is the first United States (US) president, former or current, to be convicted in a criminal court.

However, this unprecedented event has not significantly impacted his chances of returning to the White House, according to prediction markets.

On the crypto-based Polymarket, where election-related bets total nearly $150 million, Trump's conviction only slightly reduced the "yes" contract's value by a penny.

Source: Polymarket

Despite this, the pro-crypto Trump maintains a 16-point lead over President Joe Biden on Polymarket, a margin significantly larger than polling averages.

Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, on PredictIt, a more conventional betting platform where trades are in dollars, Trump's contract value actually increased by a cent post-verdict.

Here, his lead over Biden stands at 51-48, closer to traditional poll numbers.

By traditional metrics, the presumptive GOP nominee remains ahead of the incumbent, as evidenced by a compilation of polls.

Source: National 2024 Presidential Election Polls

Trump Nonchalant about Potential Jail Time

Trump has stated he is "OK" with the possibility of serving jail time or being under house arrest following his historic conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal a sexual liaison with an adult film actor, Stormy Daniels, in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, which Trump won over Hillary Clinton.

He said:

“I'm OK with it. I saw one of my lawyers the other day on television saying, 'Oh no, you don't want to do that to the president.' I said: You don't beg for anything.”

But he added on that:

“I don't think the public would stand it. I'm not sure the public would stand for it."

These remarks came shortly after a Manhattan jury found him guilty on all charges related to his hush money trial.

This makes Trump the first former president to be convicted of a felony and the first major-party presidential nominee to be found guilty of a crime during a campaign for the White House.

Judge Juan Merchan has scheduled Trump's sentencing for 10 am ET on 11 July, where he could face probation or up to 20 years in state prison, with a maximum of four years per count.

For now, Trump remains out of prison, pending sentencing.

In a Fox News interview, he asserted his innocence and criticised those involved in his conviction as "sick" individuals.

"I'm fighting for the Constitution," Trump declared, noting that the trial has been "tougher" on his family than on himself. He specifically mentioned his wife, former First Lady Melania Trump, saying:

“She's fine, but I think it's very hard for her. I mean, she’s fine. But it's … you know, she has to read all this crap."

Trump All Set to Challenge His Guilty Verdict

Trump has made it clear he intends to challenge the verdict in his hush money case, and legal experts suggest he has several viable avenues for appeal.

Some believe he has a reasonable chance of success.

Arlo Devlin-Brown, a former federal prosecutor and chief of the public corruption unit in the Manhattan US Attorney's office, said:

“There is an appeal that could have legs.”

Trump's first opportunity to contest the verdict will come within 30 days of his sentencing on July 11, allowing him to appeal to New York’s First Judicial Department appellate court.

This court, located near the trial venue, has such broad discretion in reviewing jury findings that it's sometimes referred to as "the 13th juror.”

Trump made his plea in a post on Truth Social, noting that his sentencing hearing on 11 July falls just four days before the GOP’s national convention in Milwaukee, where his nomination is expected to become official.

Trump insists the case is politically motivated and is seeking the Supreme Court's intervention, echoing his legal strategy against special counsel Jack Smith's charges related to the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

The Supreme Court is currently considering claims by Trump’s lawyers that he had complete immunity from prosecution for actions taken while he was president.

Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who prosecuted the case, has not yet decided whether to request a prison term or leave the decision to Judge Juan Merchan's discretion.

Trump's lead lawyer at trial, Todd Blanche, expressed:

“We're going to appeal, and we're going to win on appeal. That's the goal. ... This is a step in the process of our justice system, and the goal is to appeal quickly and hopefully be vindicated quickly."

Convicted Felon Trump's Travel Itinerary has Shorten

With the title of a convicted felon, Trump’s ability to travel internationally has become significantly restricted.

This could impact his capacity to perform presidential duties, particularly in terms of foreign visits.

Nearly 40 countries, including Canada and the UK, have stringent policies against allowing individuals with criminal records to cross their borders.

Unless special accommodations are made, Trump would face the same restrictions.

It remains uncertain whether he would be permitted to visit these countries if he wins the presidential election in November while still a felon.

Full list of countries he is restricted from

Trump Unlikely to Get Jail Time

Legal experts suggest that Trump is unlikely to receive a prison sentence for his conviction, a sentiment reflected in market predictions.

On Polymarket, where bettors wager on whether Trump will serve time, there is a 76% likelihood he would not face incarceration, with 18% anticipating less than a year and 2% suggesting a one to two-year term.

Source: Polymarket

Interestingly, Polymarket accurately forecasted the sentence for former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who is now serving a four-month prison term.

Before his sentencing, the market predicted he would receive less than a year, particularly less than six months.

Lauren-Brooke Eisen, a senior director at the nonprofit Brennan Centre for Justice, shared that it is rare for a first-time nonviolent offender, like Trump, to receive a prison sentence.

Georgetown University law professor and criminal law expert Paul Butler echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Trump is unlikely to face imprisonment.

Trump's Possible Jail Term on the US Economy & the Election

Investors are expressing concerns about the repercussions of Trump's unprecedented conviction on the US economy.

Kevin O'Leary, a prominent Shark Tank investor and Chair of O'Leary Ventures, sheds light on his perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of Trump's pivotal trial.

Amidst widespread speculation among investors, the consensus suggests that Trump's guilty verdict could usher in an era of uncertainty and potential peril for the US economy.

O'Leary highlights the significance of holding a former president accountable for his actions, emphasizing the profound impact it could have on the reputation of the American nation.

He argued:

"You want to think beyond Trump. You want to think beyond Bragg. You want to think about after Biden. 'What did we do to ourselves here?' That should be the question. And when the sentencing occurs, and it happens on July 11, everybody should ask themselves, do we want to belittle someone that was in the White House? Make him pick up garbage on the street or jail him?"

Looking ahead, O'Leary forecasts a retrospective examination of Trump's return to power, linking it to the outcome of Bragg's trial and positioning Bragg as a pivotal figure in Trump's political resurgence.

He iterated:

"Alvin Bragg was the kingmaker. He did it for him. I know it sounds perverse, but that's what he did. And so that's called an unintended consequence. I don't know if he's happy about that, but that's how he'll be marked in history."

Haters Want Trump to End His Campaign

A recent ABC/Ipsos poll reveals a concerning trend for Trump's political prospects, with 50% of voters indicating their agreement with the verdict, compared to only 27% who disagreed.

Additionally, nearly half of the respondents, or 49%, believe Trump should terminate his campaign—a move he appears unlikely to make.

The statistics are particularly striking among "double haters"—individuals who harbour equal disdain for both Trump and President Joe Biden.

Among this group, 65% support the verdict, with two-thirds advocating for Trump to withdraw from the race.

Pollsters foresee this demographic as a pivotal segment of the swing voter constituency, poised to wield significant influence in the upcoming November election.

Can Trump be President But Work from a New Office aka the Prison?

Trump faces the possibility of a prison sentence, alongside the potential for securing another term in office.

However, it is improbable that he would serve both concurrently.

Such a scenario would present an unprecedented clash of constitutional interests: New York's commitment to upholding its laws and ensuring convicted felons serve their sentences versus the nation's need for an unimpeded president to fulfil executive duties.

Legal experts suggest that the national interest in an unhindered presidency would likely take precedence.

Should New York courts attempt otherwise, federal intervention would probably occur, leading to the suspension of the sentence for the duration of the presidency.

This raises the remarkable prospect of Trump departing the White House in 2029, only to begin a prison term thereafter.

Randall Eliason, a former federal prosecutor, said:

“I can't imagine any way New York would be allowed to jail him if he is elected."

If Trump were to secure another presidential term in November, a prison sentence would pose significant logistical challenges.

Essential presidential duties, such as overseeing Cabinet meetings, receiving intelligence briefings, and engaging with world leaders, cannot be carried out from a cell.

Even a reduced sentence could disrupt the execution of office responsibilities, as individuals on probation often face strict travel restrictions.

Eliason added:

“I think it's a real tough issue. If you're the judge, one of his big themes has been treating this defendant like any other defendant. … Well, that should include the possible sentence. At the same time, you can't really ignore the practical difficulties that go along with jailing a former U.S. president. What do you do about the Secret Service protection and all these other things, right? Do you keep him in solitary the whole time?”

Boston University law professor Jed Shugerman concurred:

“Why would a judge want to manage that? That's not just a logistical nightmare — it's basically a logistical impossibility."

Complicating matters further, Trump is expected to appeal both his conviction and sentence, potentially delaying any incarceration for years.

In practice, he could be well into his presidential tenure before a final sentence is determined and enforced by New York authorities.

The prospect of a constitutional clash might dissuade Merchan from imposing immediate imprisonment on Trump.

However, as Merchan emphasized on 6 May, he is committed to upholding the law and would not hesitate to enforce consequences, including jail time, if necessary.

With Trump's conviction, Merchan will undoubtedly face similar weighty decisions.

Justice Samuel Alito contends that considering an investigation that might lead to the prosecution of a president is impractical and ill-advised.

He wrote:

“If a sitting President were charged in New York County, would he be arrested and fingerprinted? Could he be sent to Rikers Island or be required to post bail? Could the judge impose restrictions on his travel? If the President were scheduled to travel abroad — perhaps to attend a G-7 meeting — would he have to get judicial approval? … If he were convicted, could he be imprisoned? Would aides be installed in a nearby cell? This entire imagined scene is farcical.”