Author: Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at VanEck; Patrick Bush, Senior Investment Analyst at Digital Assets at VanEck; Translated by: 0xjs@黄金财经
Before we start predicting 2025, let's take a moment to review the results of VanEck's predictions for 2024. Out of 15 predictions made in December 2023, we gave ourselves an 8.5/15. A 0.566 hit rate may not be perfect, but it's enough to keep us going. With Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and Ethereum breaking $4,000, even some of our mistakes are part of a memorable year.
1. Spot BTC ETP debuts – (1 point)
2. Bitcoin halving progresses smoothly – (1 point)
3. Bitcoin hits an all-time high in Q4 2024 – (1 point)
4. Ethereum remains second to Bitcoin – (1 point)
5. L2 dominates Ethereum activity (but L2 TVL is still lower than Ethereum) – (0.5 point)
6. Stablecoin market capitalization hits an all-time high – (1 point)
7. Decentralized exchanges’ spot trading volume share hits a record high – (1 point)
8. SOL outperforms ETH – (1 point)
9. DePIN network adoption continues to grow – (1 point)
Now, let’s get to the point: VanEck’s cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.
1. The cryptocurrency bull market reached a mid-term peak in the first quarter and hit a new high in the fourth quarter
2. The United States embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption
3. The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion
4. The daily settlement volume of stablecoins reaches $300 billion
5. The on-chain activity of AI agents exceeds 100 10,000 smart entities
6. The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin Layer 2 reaches 100,000 BTC
7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees
8. DeFi hits a record high, DEX trading volume reaches $4 trillion, TVL reaches $200 billion
9. The NFT market recovers, with trading volume reaching $30 billion
10. DApp tokens narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens
We believe that the cryptocurrency bull market will continue until 2025 and reach its first peak in the first quarter. At the first peak of the cycle,we predict that the price of Bitcoin will be around $180,000, while the price of Ethereum will exceed $6,000. Other well-known projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), may exceed $500 and $10, respectively.
After the first peak, we expect BTC to experience a 30% retracement, and altcoins will face a sharp drop of up to 60% as the market consolidates in the summer. However, there may be a recovery in the fall, and major tokens will regain momentum and regain their previous historical highs by the end of the year. To tell when the market is nearing a top, we are monitoring the following key signals:
Sustained high funding rates: When traders borrow money to bet on rising BTC prices, they are willing to pay funding rates of more than 10% for three months or more, which indicates excessive speculation.
BTC futures funding rates of >10% for several months would be a bear market signal
Source: Glass Node, as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.
Excessive unrealized profits: If the percentage of BTC holders with large paper gains (profit to cost ratio of 70% or more) stabilizes, it indicates that the market is hot.
Market value is overvalued relative to realized value: When the MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) score is over 5, it indicates that the BTC price is well above the average purchase price, which generally indicates an overheated situation.
Declining Bitcoin dominance: If Bitcoin's share of the entire cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, it means that there is a speculative shift towards riskier altcoins, which is typical late cycle behavior.
Mainstream speculation: A large number of text messages from friends who don't understand crypto asking about suspicious projects is a reliable signal of speculative mania near the top.
Historically, these indicators have been reliable signals of market exuberance and will guide our outlook as we navigate the expected market cycle in 2025.
For example: a "Top Signal" text message from a friend I met five years ago.
The election of Donald Trump has injected huge momentum into the cryptocurrency market, and his government has appointed cryptocurrency-friendly leaders to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Mary Bessent, U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Jelena McWilliams and Secretary of Health and Human Services RFK Jr. These appointments signal not only the end of anti-crypto policies, such as the systematic debanking of crypto companies and their founders, but also the beginning of a policy framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Crypto ETPs: Physical Creation, Staking, and New Spot Approvals
New SEC leadership (or potentially the CFTC) will approve multiple new spot ETPs in the U.S., including the VanEck Solana product. Ethereum ETP functionality expanded to include staking, further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs support physical creation/redemption. Either the SEC or Congress repeals SEC Rule SAB 121, which would pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.
Sovereign Bitcoin Adoption: Federal, State, and Mining Expansion
We predict that by 2025, the federal government or at least one U.S. state (likely Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas) will have established a Bitcoin reserve. From a federal perspective, this is more likely to be accomplished through an executive order leveraging the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains an unknown. Meanwhile, state governments may act independently, viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty or a tool to attract crypto investment and innovation.
In terms of Bitcoin mining, the number of countries mining Bitcoin with government resources is expected to reach double digits (currently seven) as adoption increases in the BRICS countries. Russia’s announcement of its intention to settle international trade in cryptocurrency has further fueled this trend, highlighting Bitcoin’s growing importance in global economic strategy.
Number of countries using government resources to mine Bitcoin
Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.
We expect this pro-Bitcoin stance to ripple through the entire U.S. crypto ecosystem. The share of global crypto developers headquartered in the U.S. will rise from 19% to 25% as regulatory clarity and incentives attract talent and companies back. At the same time, U.S. Bitcoin mining will flourish, with the U.S. share of global mining power rising from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025, driven by cheap energy and potentially favorable tax policies. Together, these trends will solidify the U.S.’ leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.
U.S. Public Companies’ Bitcoin Hashrate Share to Reach 35%
Source: JPMorgan Chase, VanEck Research as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Expected to Surge 43%
In terms of corporate adoption, we expect companies to continue to accumulate Bitcoin from retail investors. Currently, 68 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and we expect this number to reach 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million BTC next year. This means that corporate Bitcoin holdings will grow at a staggering 43% rate over the next year.
Gold vs. Bitcoin Ownership: Room for Growth for Enterprises and Governments
Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.
Onchain securities to grow 61% in 2024
Source: RWA.xyz, Deflama, as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Crypto is expected to improve the financial system by increasing efficiency, decentralization, and greater transparency. We believe 2025 will be the year tokenized securities take off. There are already about $12 billion worth of tokenized securities on blockchains, the majority of which ($9.5 billion) are tokenized private credit securities listed on Figure’s semi-permissioned blockchain, Provenance.
In the future, we see great potential for tokenized securities to be issued on public blockchains. We believe there are many motivations for investors to drive tokenized stocks or bonds to be issued exclusively on-chain. Next year, we expect entities like the DTCC to enable tokenized assets to be seamlessly transferred between public blockchains and private closed infrastructure. This dynamic will set the standard for enforcing AML/KYC for on-chain investors. As a wild card, we predict that Coinbase will take the unprecedented step of tokenizing COIN shares and deploying them on its BASE blockchain.
Monthly stablecoin transfers (in USD) increased 180% year-on-year in 2024
Source: Artemis XYZ as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Stablecoins will transcend their niche status in cryptocurrency trading and become a core part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we expect stablecoins to settle $300 billion in transfers per day, equivalent to 5% of DTCC’s current volume, and ~$100 billion in stablecoins per day in November 2024. Their adoption by big tech companies (like Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) will redefine payment economics.
Beyond trading, the remittance market is set to explode. For example, stablecoin transfers between the U.S. and Mexico could grow 5x, from $80 million to $400 million per month. The reasons? Speed, cost savings, and growing trust among millions of people who see stablecoins not as an experiment but as a utility. For all the talk of blockchain adoption, stablecoins are its Trojan Horse.
AI Agents’ Total Revenue Reaches $8.7 Million in 5 Weeks
Source: Dune @jdhpyer as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
We believe that one of the most compelling narratives is AI Agents, which will translate into massive traction in 2025. AI Agents are specialized artificial intelligence bots that guide users to achieve outcomes such as “maximize gains” or “stimulate X/Twitter engagement.” Agents use their ability to autonomously change strategies to optimize these outcomes. AI agents are typically fed data and trained to specialize in one area. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide tools for anyone to create AI agents to perform on-chain tasks. Virtuals allows non-experts to access decentralized AI agent contributors such as tuners, dataset providers, and model developers so that non-technical people can create their own AI agents. The result will be a surge in the number of agents that their creators can rent out to generate income.
The current focus of agent building is DeFi, but we believe AI agents will go beyond financial activities. Agents can act as social media influencers, computer players in games, and interactive partners/assistants in consumer applications. Agents have already become important X/Twitter influencers, such as Bixby and Terminal of Truths, who have 92,000 and 197,000 followers respectively. As a result, we believe the huge potential of agents will spawn more than 1 million new agents by 2025.
Total locked value in Bitcoin L2 reaches 30,000 BTC, up 600% so far in 2024
Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.
We are closely watching the emergence of Bitcoin L2 blockchains, which have great potential to change the Bitcoin ecosystem. Scaling Bitcoin enables these L2 solutions to achieve lower latency and higher transaction throughput, addressing the limitations of the base layer. Additionally, Bitcoin L2 enhances Bitcoin’s capabilities by introducing smart contract functionality, which can power the robust decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin can be transferred from the Bitcoin blockchain to smart contract platforms via bridged or wrapped BTC, which rely on third-party systems that are vulnerable to hacks and security vulnerabilities. Bitcoin L2 solutions aim to address these risks by providing a framework that integrates directly with Bitcoin’s base layer, minimizing reliance on centralized intermediaries. While liquidity limitations and barriers to adoption remain, Bitcoin L2 is expected to enhance security and decentralization, giving BTC holders more confidence to actively use their Bitcoin in a decentralized ecosystem.
As shown in the figure, Bitcoin L2 solutions have experienced explosive growth in 2024, with a total locked value (TVL) of more than 30,000 BTC, a 600% increase year-to-date, totaling approximately $3 billion. Currently, there are over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects in development, but only a handful are likely to achieve widespread adoption in the long term.
This rapid growth reflects strong demand from BTC holders seeking yield and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technologies and Bitcoin L2 mature into products that are accessible to end users, Bitcoin will also become an integral part of DeFi. For example, platforms such as Ika on Sui or the Near chain abstraction used by Infinex highlight how innovative multi-chain solutions will enhance Bitcoin's interoperability with other ecosystems.
By enabling secure and efficient on-chain lending and other permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin L2 and abstraction technologies will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value to an active participant in the decentralized ecosystem. As adoption scales, these technologies will bring tremendous opportunities for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.
Daily Ethereum Blobs
Source: Dune @hildobby as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether Ethereum is gaining enough value from its L2 network through Blob Space, a key component of its scaling roadmap. Blob Space acts as a specialized data layer where L2 submits a compressed history of its transactions to Ethereum and pays ETH fees per blob. While this architecture underpins Ethereum’s scalability, L2 currently sends minimal value to the mainnet, with a gross margin of around 90%. This has raised concerns that Ethereum’s economic value could shift too far to L2, leaving the base layer underutilized.
While Blob Space growth has slowed recently, we expect its usage to expand dramatically by 2025, driven by three key factors:
Explosive L2 Adoption: Transaction volume on Ethereum’s L2 has grown at an annualized rate of over 300% as users migrate to the low-cost, high-throughput environments of DeFi, gaming, and social applications. The proliferation of consumer-facing dApps on L2 will significantly increase demand for Blob Space as more transactions flow back to Ethereum for final settlement.
Rollup Optimization: Advances in Rollup technology, such as improved data compression and lower costs for posting data to Blob Space, will encourage L2 to store more transaction data on Ethereum, enabling higher throughput without sacrificing decentralization.
Introduction to High-Fee Use Cases: The rise of enterprise applications, zk-rollup-driven financial solutions, and real-world asset tokenization will drive high-value transactions that prioritize security and immutability, increasing willingness to pay Blob Space fees.
By the end of 2025, we expect Blob Space fees to exceed $1 billion, up from current negligible levels. This growth will solidify Ethereum’s position as the final settlement layer for decentralized applications while strengthening its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum’s Blob Space will scale the network and become a major revenue generator, balancing the economic relationship between the mainnet and L2.
DeFi (decentralized finance) total locked value (TVL)
Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
While decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes are hitting all-time highs, both in absolute terms and relative to centralized exchanges (CEX), decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) remains 24% below its peak. We expect DEX volumes to exceed $4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot volume, driven by AI-related tokens and new consumer-facing dApps.
In addition, the influx of tokenized securities and high-value assets will boost DeFi growth, providing new liquidity and broader utility. As a result, we expect DeFi TVL to rebound to over $200 billion by year-end, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in the evolving digital economy.
NFT volume declines in 2024; we expect a rebound in 2025
Source: As of: December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.
The 2022-2023 bear market hit the NFT industry hard, with trading volume plunging 39% since 2023 and 84% since 2022. While fungible token prices began to recover in 2024, most NFTs lagged behind, experiencing weak prices and inactive activity until November. Despite these challenges, some standout projects have defied the downward trend by leveraging strong community bonds to transcend speculative value.
For example, Pudgy Penguins has successfully transitioned to a consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys has achieved cultural status in the satirical online culture space. Similarly, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) has continued to evolve into a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities, and mainstream media.
As crypto wealth rebounds, we expect newly wealthy users to invest in NFTs not just as speculative investments, but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance. Given the strong cultural cachet and relevance of well-known collectibles such as CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC), they are well positioned to benefit from this shift. While BAYC and CryptoPunks remain well below their all-time trading peaks, down approximately 90% and 66% respectively in ETH terms, other projects such as Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have surpassed their previous price highs.
Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, owning the majority of significant collectibles. By 2024, it accounts for 71% of NFT transactions, a figure we expect to rise to 85% by 2025. This dominance is reflected in the market capitalization rankings, where Ethereum-based NFTs occupy all of the top 10 positions and 16 of the top 20, highlighting the central role of blockchain in the NFT ecosystem.
While NFT trading volumes may not return to the excitement highs of previous cycles, we believe that $30 billion in annual trading is achievable, representing approximately 55% of the 2021 peak, as the market shifts toward sustainability and cultural relevance rather than speculative hype.
Layer 1 Tokens Outperformed Leading DApps by 2x in 2024
Source: Market Vectors as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The MVSCLE Index tracks smart contract platforms. The MVIALE Index tracks infrastructure application tokens.
A consistent theme of the 2024 bull run is that L1 blockchain tokens have significantly outperformed decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE Index, which tracks smart contract platforms, has risen 80% year to date, while the MVIALE Index of application tokens has lagged with a return of only 35% over the same period.
However, we expect this dynamic to change later in 2024 as a new wave of dApps launch, offering innovative and useful products that drive value to their respective tokens. Among the major thematic trends, we see AI as a standout category of dApp innovation. Additionally, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) projects have significant potential to attract investor and user interest, contributing to a broader rebalancing of performance between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.
This shift underscores the growing importance of utility and product-market fit in determining the success of application tokens in the evolving crypto space.
David Game College’s Sabrewing programme will start in September, offering a cutting-edge AI-driven learning model for 20 GCSE students using AI tools and VR headsets for personalized education. This program combines AI's adaptive learning with human support from learning coaches to provide a balanced and tailored educational experience.
WeatherlyElon Musk may be summoned to testify before the UK Parliament about his platform, X. Labour MPs Dawn Butler and Chi Onwurah support an inquiry into how social media algorithms, including X’s, drive misinformation and profits. Is Musk following a path like Pavel Durov's?
CatherineIn 2023, cryptocurrency-related fraud surged by 45%, leading to over $5.6 billion in losses, with investment scams being the most significant contributor. The FBI highlighted that elderly individuals are particularly vulnerable, and emerging scams like those involving crypto ATMs and play-to-earn schemes are on the rise, urging increased vigilance and regulatory measures.
JoyIn August, Taiwan’s exports hit a record $43.6B, boosted by strong chip demand from the growing AI sector. Exports to the US more than doubled, while weakened demand sees China falling behind. With September forecasts positive, will Taiwan break its export record again?
Kikyo"Mothernet," directed by Ho Wi Ding, is a drama about a boy using AI to reconnect with his comatose mother, set in a near-future Indonesia. Starring Dian Sastrowardoyo and Ringgo Agus Rahman, it combines Indonesian and Singaporean production efforts and is set for a 2025 release.
WeatherlyApple’s unveiling of the new iPhone16 models was disrupted by deepfakes of CEO Tim Cook promoting a cryptocurrency scam. Alarmingly, YouTube's search algorithm prioritised this fraudulent stream, highlighting concerns about the platform's user protection.
CatherineSouth Korean Customs officials reported an 18% rise in drug smuggling in 2023, with 769 kilograms of narcotics seized, largely attributed to the use of cryptocurrencies and encrypted messaging apps like Telegram. The surge in smuggling attempts, particularly driven by high domestic drug prices and non-face-to-face transactions, highlights the urgent need for more effective regulatory and enforcement measures.scalating challenges for law enforcement.
Weatherly该文深入探讨了现行法律框架与行政命令之间的矛盾冲突，并对司法实践中因现行相关法律政策不完善所引发的执行难题进行了细致的分析。
AlexSushiSwap's price jumped 7.3% in the past 24 hours, likely boosted by both the crypto market recovery and the upcoming launch of Dojo, a new meme coin launchpad. The release, initially set for 10 September, has been delayed to 17 Septembe for a smoother rollout.
KikyoApple’s iPhone 16 is facing criticism in China for lacking advanced AI features, which has disappointed many consumers. This comes as Huawei’s innovative devices, like a tri-fold smartphone, gain popularity and pose a growing threat to Apple’s market share.
Anais