Source: Heart of the Metaverse
Predictions are always difficult, especially in a rapidly evolving industry like artificial intelligence. However, as we approach the new year, we might as well take a look back at the progress artificial intelligence has made over the past 12 months and its prospects for 2024.
2023 is undoubtedly a milestone year for artificial intelligence, but fear and speculation often dominate the headlines.
01. Artificial Intelligence “Doomsday Theory”
2023 has witnessed the rise of artificial intelligence doomsday theorists. Internet commentators such as Eliezer Yudkowsky have warned against artificial intelligence doomsday. Intelligence has gained a reputation for posing existential risks to humans.
A high-profile open letter from technology industry leaders adds to the pessimism. The open letter calls for a six-month moratorium on the most powerful artificial intelligence research so experts can assess risks and develop safety protocols.
Whatever the benefits of these suggestions, it is unlikely that artificial intelligence will hit the brakes anytime soon. Even if it were politically possible to prevent the development of artificial intelligence, doing so would be a strategic mistake.
Also, even those actively calling for a moratorium don’t seem to take the idea seriously. Those who signed the letter, like Elon Musk, are still desperately advancing their own AI models. Grok, the artificial intelligence chatbot developed by Musk's xAI company, is the latest example.
The atmosphere surrounding doomsday is driven in large part by the "effective altruism" (EA) movement, which gained significant public attention in 2023. Yet despite its deep pockets and rising influence within the establishment, the movement has had a tough few years.
The incompetence of OpenAI CEO Altman being fired and rehired by the board of EA affiliates, and EA's close relationship with Crypto scammer Sam Bankman-Fried, show that the movement doesn't always live up to the hype as effective or altruistic.
That is, the rise or fall of apocalypticism does not depend on its association with dubious pseudo-philosophies. There is no doubt that many AI risks are real and should be taken seriously regardless. In particular, the impact of artificial intelligence on national security may be the area of greatest concern.
Artificial intelligence will enable new types of cyber warfare against critical infrastructure and may also lead to the development of dangerous biological and chemical weapons. In addition, artificial intelligence will push information warfare to new frontiers through advanced propaganda and deep fakes.
In other words, what was once a Hollywood fantasy is quickly becoming a reality as biometric technology begins to seep into everyday life. Facial recognition technology has become popular in airports, and artificial intelligence is commonly used in law enforcement departments, which may herald the arrival of the mass surveillance state.
The new Netflix apocalyptic film "Blackout" depicts the collapse of society in the face of mysterious nationwide destructive technology. Art imitates life, so life is not art.
02. Controversy continues
A key battlefield in the coming year will be the battle between open and closed artificial intelligence systems.
Ironically, OpenAI and its derivative Anthropic now represent a closed black box model, while companies like Meta embrace openness. Regulation will heavily influence whether opaque systems (like ChatGPT) or transparent systems (like Meta's LLaMa) end up prevailing.
The EU’s upcoming Artificial Intelligence Bill exposes the trade-offs policymakers face in balancing regulation and innovation. Overregulation could entrench Silicon Valley’s tech giants but also hurt startups and open source competitors.
If Europe wants to achieve self-innovation in the field of artificial intelligence, it must cultivate a highly competitive market so that rising stars like French company Mistral AI can thrive. On the contrary, relevant EU legislation may also make these promising companies disappear.
As for the United States, President Biden’s recent executive orders on artificial intelligence have mostly postponed specific details, but the regulations that have been enacted will be implemented in 2024, which will definitely shake the U.S. artificial intelligence policy landscape.
Debates around some issues such as bias and discrimination may unfold along predictable partisan lines, but the thorny issues surrounding copyright and intellectual property are more complex.
The New York Times filed the first copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and its partner Microsoft, which may be a groundbreaking case.
The lawsuit concerns the use of the newspaper’s articles to train artificial intelligence algorithms, which the New York Times contends is copyright infringement. It's expected to be a year of intense legal and regulatory wrangling before the issue is resolved.
Another controversy will arise around the industry’s growing energy use, as AI models require massive data centers to power them, which consume Lots of power.
The debate over the energy use of artificial intelligence is likely to be closely related to the debate surrounding the environmental damage caused by the mining of Crypto assets. As competition for "computing" reaches new heights, the issue will only grow more divisive.
03. Future Outlook
Despite these controversies, 2024 is still expected to be the year when rationality and meticulousness retake the center stage of artificial intelligence policy of the year.
The United States and Europe can still develop prudent governance strategies that protect freedoms while ensuring the benefits of AI. But to do this, leaders need to base discussions on facts and evidence, not unfounded emotions.
Both blind optimism and severe pessimism can hinder thoughtful solutions. The risks are huge, but the possibilities are staggering. 2024 is expected to be a critical year for society to deal with the double-edged sword of artificial intelligence.
Brian
JinseFinance
Beincrypto
Bitcoinist
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