When will this round of bull market come and what form will it take?

Author: CEO of Waterdrop Capital

Many people want to know if there will be a bull market in this cycle, when it will come, and what form it will take.  

I think the key event that brings about the bull market of altcoins (note, it is altcoins. In theory, Bitcoin is already in a bull market, and the price has increased greatly compared to the beginning of the year) is neither the launch of those VC projects with large financing, nor the crazy launch of meme projects by Binance, and don’t expect any so-called mass adoption projects to suddenly appear.

In fact, the arrival of the bull market is only related to the enthusiasm of the funds entering the market. If the funds enter the market > leave the market, the market will rise, otherwise, it will fall, and the aunties on the street also know this truth.

The others are nothing more than finding some reasons for the funds to enter and exit, so that the funds are not fools.

And the event that really deserves everyone's attention and waiting is probably Uniswap, which has been unknown in the corner recently. Whether its governance token Uni dividend will be approved by the SEC is related to whether the copycat bull market will come.  

Some people may have noticed recently that some tokens supported by real project income, such as BNB, PENDLE, AAVE, etc., have performed very well in the past year. This shows that the market will not kill truly high-quality projects after all, and the commercial essence of traditional business practiced for thousands of years is also true.

Imagine that once Uni is allowed to pay dividends, what does it mean? It means that what we hold is no longer air. Many DeFi or games will distribute the protocol income to token holders, so the blockchain spirit of the trinity of users, shareholders and employees can give full play to its power. It also means that many high-quality projects in traditional industries will no longer choose to issue stocks, but will choose to issue tokens to raise funds for exit. Uniswap may become a decentralized Nasdaq, and naturally a lot of funds will rush in to dig for gold. Then the conditions for deposits and withdrawals are met, the bull market arrives, and a huge bubble is born until the next burst.

What about the timing? It is not so easy to change the SEC's policies, at least not before the November election, which means there will be no bull market before November. As for after November, it depends on whether Trump can be elected and whether he can replace the current SEC chairman with someone who likes crypto. Even if Trump is elected, it will take time to pass relevant bills. In other words, in the next three to six months, everyone needs to tighten their belts and hold on, and don't think about the bull market of altcoins. At most, Bitcoin will rise alone to bring altcoins. Finally, let me mention token2049 this time. Because there are too many side meetings, there are not enough speakers and audiences. I suggest that everyone will hold fewer side meetings in the future, and use the money saved to buy Bitcoin or repurchase their own tokens. At worst, you can have a party for everyone to have fun. Share knowledge online as much as possible. I will attend the following events and share on the topics of BTC ecology, DePIN, TON ecology, and games: 1. Innoblock’s game and DePIN-themed side events on the morning of the 17th 2. GMA’s game investment meetup on the afternoon of the 17th 3. BEVM and UTXO Management’s BTC ecology sub-forum at the main conference venue on the 18th. 4. CKB’s Bitcoin ecology-themed side event on the afternoon of the 19th, and web3labs’ BTC ecology side event. 5. LNFi’s Lightning Network-themed meetup on the 20th.