In fact, this event has a similar impact to the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF at that time. In my opinion, it will indirectly benefit the price and liquidity of Ethereum in the long run, but the short-term effect is It doesn’t matter what or how big it is. Even if there is, it is fleeting.
Whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum, what can most directly stimulate currency prices and promote ecological development is the application development of its internal ecosystem. This was the case with ICO, DeFi later, and the inscriptions in the current Bitcoin ecosystem.
I wrote in a previous article that since the last bull market ended and entered the bear market, the relationship between the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum has been maintained at about 14 for a long period of time. :1 (i.e. 1 Bitcoin for 14 Ethereum).
Later, when the Bitcoin Inscription ecology developed, the relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum currency prices changed significantly, and soon became 20:1, and even 22:1 today.
Why is this?
They are all driven by ecological development: In this round of bear market, the development of Bitcoin ecology is better than that of Ethereum.
I participated in the BTC domain name, but that was a long time ago. At that time, I just participated casually. I didn’t spend a lot of money, and I didn’t have high hopes. After participating, I basically left it there and ignored it.
In my past articles, I also tried my best to guess when the bull market would break out, but that was just a game. I think we should not get too hung up on when the bull market will break out, let alone spend too much time and effort on these speculations.
Spending too much time on this can easily lead to negative obsessions, which only has disadvantages and no benefits.
Now that we have set our own operation strategy, let’s implement it according to the strategy. We must follow our own plans and not be led by market sentiment and our own emotions.
When I look at whether an encryption project has risks, I look at the team, application scenarios, community, and other factors (such as economic models, etc.).
From a team perspective, this project seems to be a little different from general encryption projects: it does not have a clear and centralized team like other projects, it is more like a loose team composed of community members.
There are many well-known figures in the encryption community in this loose team, and these people have more or less promoted and promoted this project. At first, some players promoted it as a reward token like Dogecoin; later, a team used it as a fuel token based on existing technology to launch a third-layer extension based on Base.
Such a team does not have a clear backbone and mainly relies on scattered guerrilla methods to advance the project. This method can be used as a small project in the early stage, but if you want to turn it into a large project or even an ecological application in the future, there may be problems.
So this may be a risk on the team side in my opinion.
From the perspective of application scenarios, it developed from social networking, but can the social scenario turn it into a formal application?
I am not sure about this. The lesson learned from the past is Dogecoin.
So this may be considered an application risk.
From a community perspective, its current main community members are users on Farcaster. Although this group is very sticky, the current scale is still too small. Can there be a breakthrough in the future, and can it truly become the social application of Web 3 that many people are looking forward to, so as to attract a large number of users and form a huge community?
It’s hard to say this now, so there are also problems in this regard.
Finally, from the perspective of the economic model, its current empowerment is mainly for rewards and use as a fuel token for third-layer expansion. This token model is good, but it is not very eye-catching. It can only be said to be so-so.
Generally speaking, the risks I thought of above are all its current problems. Failure to handle any of these problems will affect the future development of this project.
So I prefer to continue to track this project and observe its next trend. At this stage, I just hold some tokens and will not make a fixed investment.
Perhaps what is different from all previous halving cycles is the change in the income structure of miners, which is caused by factors such as the future price space of BTC and the current development status of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
JinseFinanceTaking into account the historical performance patterns before and after the Bitcoin halving and the current better environment, the price of Bitcoin is expected to hit US$60,000 before the halving in 2024, with the full-year range fluctuating between US$32,000 and US$85,000.
JinseFinanceThe event will double the bitcoin production cost to around $40,000, creating a positive psychological effect, the report said.
CoindeskA new study by Ren & Heinrich suggests that Binance's emergence as the dominant global crypto exchange might mean that its individual token listings are now getting a lot more attention.
CoindeskThe last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next bitcoin halving will likely occur in 2024.
CoindeskBitcoin’s hashrate is reaching all-time highs, and it’s causing confusion about “the halvening” on Twitter.
CoindeskHash rate on the bitcoin network has hit a new all-time high of 281.79 million TH/s, and its next halving dates is projected to be as early as Q4 2023.
BeincryptoTraders still anticipate BTC prices above $100,000, but a closer look at the BTC halving cycle chart suggests that a sharper downside move will occur first.
CointelegraphThe $50,000 resistance level seems to be the line in the sand that separates certainty from doubt that Bitcoin has cast off the four-year cycle trend, according to Santiment.
Cointelegraph