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今日晚间推荐阅读：1.漫长的等待：山寨币的收获季何时会来？；2.大选倒计时：经济指标和资产类别如何揭示选举结果可能性？；3.11000个政治团体花费147亿美元；

BTC,山寨币,金色观察 | 漫长的等待：山寨币的收获季何时会来？ 金色财经,一面是火焰一面是海水，山寨币亟需泼天富贵

加密货币能否获得广泛采用最终取决于我们是否有能力在不损害去中心化特性和安全性基本原则的情况下，让日常用户可以使用复杂的区块链技术。

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Ethereum生态的关键意见领袖正在贵族化，形成一个利益阶级，这就让阶级流动出现固化的现象，开发者生态缺乏足够的激励，创新自然显得乏力，

이번주 주요 글로벌 거시 일정은 다음과 같다. (한국시간 기준) -4/1 만우절, 2245 미국 3월 제조업 구매관리자지수(PMI) -4/2 2310 FOMC 위원 보우먼 연설 -4/3 0105 FOMC 위원 메스터 연설, 0230 FOMC 위원 메리 델리 연설, 1800 유로존 3월 소비자물가지수(CPI), 2115 3월 미국 ADP비농업고용, 2245 FOMC 멤버 보우먼 연설, 2330 미국 원유재고 -4/4 0110 제롬 파월 연방준비제도(연준, Fed) 연설, 0210 마이클 바 연준 부의장 연설, 2130 미국 신규실업수당청구건수 -4/5 2130 미국 3월 비농업고용지수 및 실업률 -4/6 0115 FOMC 위원 보우먼 연설

本日のNYダウは続落し一時500ドル超下落。ナスダックはアップルやテスタの下落に押され大幅安に。投資家は先週強弱混在の米経済データを消化しつつ今夜発表予定の2月ADP雇用統計や明日予定のFRBのパウエル議長による両院での半期証言に臨む。 source: https://coinpost.jp/?p=514592

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) moved lower, with the cryptocurrency prices trading below the key $43,000 level on Wednesday. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) also recorded losses, trading below the key $2,300 mark this morning. source: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/01/36867301/bitcoin-falls-below-43-000-following-adp-report-blur-manta-network-among-top-losers?utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_source=cryptopanic.com&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site

This week (1/29-2/4) presents a significant macroeconomic period with several data releases, primarily focused around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Notably, there seems to be a diminishing correlation between macro data and the crypto market, says macro researcher Adam from Greeks.live. 1. On Wednesday (1/31), the US ADP employment numbers for January and the Bank of Japan's summary of the March monetary policy meeting review committee will be released. 2. Thursday (2/1) will feature the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England's interest rate decisions and the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week. 3. On Friday (2/2), the US unemployment rate and non-farm payroll employment for January will be disclosed. Additionally, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for January will be announced. Regarding the BTC spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), their market effect has substantially subsided. Therefore, the main term option's implied volatility (IV) has fallen to an exceptionally low level, below 50% for the entire term. This makes buying options now very cost-effective, underlining a high short-term bullish winning rate if purchasing on dips since the market is currently in a post-panic rebound. In the crypto interest rate market, as calmness returns, leverage levels have started to quietly rise. Consequently, the interest rate market has recovered from low levels, and some high-interest orders have recently begun to appear.

Greeks.live 宏观研究员 Adam 在 X 平台发布本周市场展望（1/29-2/4）：本周是一个宏观大周，以美联储利率决定为核心的诸多宏观经济数据将公布。但是整体预期一致，且宏观数据与加密行情关联性减弱，目前主要期限 IV 较低，波动预期不大。BTC 现货 ETF 的影响已经结束，灰度的抛压对市场的影响也明显减弱，投资者正在寻找下一个热点。 1/31 周三* -美国 1 月 ADP 就业人数 -日本央行公布 3 月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要 2/1 周四*** -美联储利率决定-英国央行利率决定-美国当周初请失业金人数 2/2 周五** -美国 1 月失业率-美国 1 月非农就业人口 -美国 1 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 此外，BTC 现货 ETF 给市场带来的波动已经平息，主要期限期权 IV 处于极低水平，目前已经全期限低于 50%，现在买入的性价比很高。目前行情处于恐慌后的反弹，逢低买入短期看涨的胜率很高。 加密利率市场方面，随着市场恢复平静，杠杆水平开始悄然回升，利率市场已经从低水位反弹，近期开始出现一些高利息订单。

이번주 주요 글로벌 거시 일정은 다음과 같다. (한국시간 기준) -1/30 1900 유로존 4분기 GDP -1/31 0000 미국 노동부 1월 JOLTs 구인·이직 보고서, 2215 미국 ADP비농업고용 -2/1 0400 미국 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 성명서, 0400 미국 금리결정, 0430 미국 FOMC 기자회견, 2100 영국 금리결정, 2230 미국 신규 실업수당청구건수, 2345 미국 1월 제조업 구매관리자지수 -2/2 0000 미국 1월 ISM 제조업구매자지수, 2230 미국 1월 비농업고용지수, 2230 미국 1월 실업률

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) moved higher, with the cryptocurrency prices trading above the key $43,000 level on Thursday. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) also recorded gains, trading above the key $2,200 mark this morning. source: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/01/36490884/bitcoin-rises-above-43-000-following-adp-data-beam-emerges-as-top-gainer?utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_source=cryptopanic.com&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site

Menurut Yahoo News, saham-saham AS ditutup lebih rendah pada hari Rabu karena para investor menilai data penggajian swasta yang lemah dan mengantisipasi laporan pekerjaan bulan November, yang akan dirilis pada hari Jumat ini. Imbal hasil obligasi turun karena para investor memperhitungkan suku bunga yang lebih rendah karena data yang mengindikasikan potensi pelemahan ekonomi dan kemungkinan Federal Reserve akan segera memangkas suku bunga. Harga minyak anjlok karena AS mengalami peningkatan persediaan gas dibandingkan minggu sebelumnya, dengan harga minyak AS ditutup di bawah $70 per barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak bulan Juni. Minyak mentah Brent, patokan internasional, turun 4% dan diperdagangkan di sekitar $74,32 per barel. Perusahaan-perusahaan swasta mempekerjakan lebih sedikit karyawan daripada yang diperkirakan pada bulan November, menambahkan 103.000 pekerjaan, menurut ADP. Ini lebih rendah dari 128.000 yang diantisipasi, menunjukkan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja mungkin mendingin dan memberikan alasan bagi the Fed untuk mengurangi kenaikan suku bunga dalam perekonomian. Comerica Bank memperkirakan bahwa payrolls akan turun menjadi 110.000 pada laporan pekerjaan pemerintah di bulan November, sementara pengangguran akan naik menjadi 4%. Pasar juga tetap berharap tentang prospek penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2024. Para investor memperkirakan 60% kemungkinan The Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga pada bulan Maret tahun depan, menurut alat CME FedWatch. Sementara itu, imbal hasil Treasury 10 tahun turun empat basis poin, diperdagangkan di sekitar 4,12% pada Rabu sore.

Laporan ADP terbaru menunjukkan bahwa penciptaan lapangan kerja di sektor swasta AS melambat di bulan November. sumber: https://tokenist.com/adp-data-shows-us-added-103k-jobs-in-november-lower-than-expected/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=adp-data-shows-us-added-103k-jobs-in-november-lower-than-expected

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bergerak lebih tinggi, dengan harga mata uang kripto diperdagangkan di atas level kunci $44.000 pada hari Rabu. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) juga mencatat kenaikan, diperdagangkan di atas level kunci $2.200 pagi ini. sumber: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/12/36113527/bitcoin-jumps-to-44-000-following-adp-data-bittorrent-emerges-as-top-gainer?utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_source=cryptopanic.com&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site