According to CoinDesk, the odds of Kamala Harris winning the U.S. presidential election have increased on the betting platform Polymarket. Harris' chances have risen from 33% on October 30 to nearly 39%, while Donald Trump's odds have dropped to 61%. This shift may be attributed to traders hedging their bets, with significant trades suggesting strategic moves to protect against a potential Trump loss. Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could also be influencing market bets.
Polymarket allows users to buy shares in the outcome of predictions, with the price of shares reflecting the perceived likelihood of an event occurring. The odds are dynamic and change with each trade, operating on a blockchain-based order book. The market's relatively low liquidity can lead to significant price swings, as seen with a large purchase briefly driving Trump's shares up to 99% last week. The increase in Harris' share price may indicate traders buying them as a hedge against their Trump bets, especially amid allegations of voting irregularities against Trump.
Recent data from Polymarket shows a surge in trades exceeding $10,000, with substantial purchases of Harris