OTC Weekly Trading Insights (04/25/2025)

Top Interest of the Week$MAGIC serves as the governance token for Treasure, a decentralized gaming console platform operating on Arbitrum. The recent surge in this token's value was fueled by the announcement of the team's integration of advanced AI agents capable of playing games. These bots will engage on social media, participate in gaming, accumulate rewards, and even conduct trades through a single, tradable NFT asset. The overarching aim is to create a synergy between AI, gaming, decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). New Kind of Network ($NKN) is a cryptocurrency initiative focused on constructing a decentralized internet by enabling bandwidth sharing. In contrast to conventional internet service providers, NKN allows users to connect directly with one another and earn tokens for sharing their unused internet capacity. Its blockchain-based protocol aspires to deliver a quicker and more accessible internet experience. Additionally, NKN is investigating innovative applications, such as secure data relay for decentralized AI inference, in line with the anticipated AI-blockchain convergence of 2025.Turbo represents the intersection of artificial intelligence, speed, and humour. It was launched in a remarkable 69 hours with a mere $69 budget, and it quickly gained notoriety as a meme coin without any developer promotion or influencer support—just a blend of absurdity and rapid growth. The community embraced Turbo's meme-centric approach, sustaining its momentum throughout crypto Twitter. The value of the memecoin endorsed by President Trump, $TRUMP, saw a significant increase on Wednesday, jumping 58% in just one hour, reaching close to the $15 mark for the first time since March. This surge was triggered by the announcement that top token holders would be invited to an exclusive dinner with Trump at his golf club near Washington, D.C., on May 22, where he will share insights on the future of cryptocurrency in a personal setting.Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our analysis last week, we maintained a neutral short-term outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) while adopting a bearish perspective for the next 6 to 12 months. Our research indicated strong resistance in the $91,000 range, where BTC was likely to face selling pressure. Although the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggested an imminent breakout, the direction remained uncertain. Ultimately, the market continued its prior trend following a period of tight range consolidation, underscoring the prevailing volatility.On Monday, the U.S. equity market extended its selloff from the previous week, with the S&P 500 declining by 3% intraday. Despite this downturn, BTC demonstrated remarkable resilience against the U.S. dollar, buoyed in part by the dollar’s weakening. This divergence in performance suggests that BTC is increasingly being perceived as a safe haven asset, akin to gold, particularly during periods of heightened market uncertainty.The shift in market sentiment was further catalyzed by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday, who indicated that the ongoing tariff conflict with China is unsustainable. Additionally, President Trump’s statement that tariffs on China would be "reduced significantly" but not eliminated was interpreted as a potential de-escalation signal. This news triggered a bullish reversal in risk assets, propelling BTC above the $91,000 resistance level and transforming it into a support zone. The price surged to nearly $95,000, driven by short position liquidations and fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors.However, the bullish momentum has since waned, as the market lacks further clarity on U.S.-China trade relations. While the U.S. administration’s remarks spurred significant capital inflows into BTC ETFs, boosting the price temporarily, our desk believes this rally may be short-lived without concrete progress on tariff reductions. Currently, BTC is trading above our highlighted support range of $91,000 to $92,000. Based on our technical analysis, BTC may enter a consolidation phase, potentially retesting the $88,000 level before any sustained upward movement. The recent price action, marked by a breakout above $91,000, could signal further gains if BTC holds above this level. A decisive break above $95,000 would likely attract additional buying interest, while failure to maintain support at $91,000 could lead to a deeper correction.Despite the short-term rally, our desk remains bearish on BTC over the next 6 to 12 months. Historical precedent suggests that President Trump’s tariff policies are unlikely to yield swift resolutions, particularly with China. The absence of disclosed trade agreements with any U.S. trading partners further reinforces this view. We believe the market may have overinterpreted the administration’s comments on tariff reductions, and without tangible progress, the recent bullish sentiment could reverse.Our desk is closely tracking several key developments that could shift our outlook:National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: If other nations follow the U.S. in establishing Bitcoin reserves, this could signal a structural bullish catalyst for BTC.Trade Deal Agreements: Successful negotiations within the 90-day tariff pause could alleviate recession fears and support risk assets.Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Any indication of monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, would likely provide a bullish tailwind for BTC and other risk assets.Despite BTC demonstrating short-term resilience in the face of a declining dollar and changing market attitudes, we maintain a cautious long-term perspective. The future trajectory is closely tied to geopolitical developments and the actions of central banks. Without significant progress on trade negotiations or accommodative monetary policy, we expect ongoing fluctuations and possible downward pressure on BTC in the months ahead.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (25-04-17)The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, a move that was widely expected by the market. In its accompanying policy statement, the ECB emphasized the weakened growth outlook due to ongoing trade tensions.Initial jobless claims in the United States have continued to decline, with last week's figures showing 215,000 claims, which is below the anticipated 225,000.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Index for April was unexpectedly reported at -26.4, a significant deviation from the forecasted 2.2.On Tuesday (25-04-22)In April, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bank of Japan experienced a growth of 2.2%, which fell short of the anticipated 2.4%.On Wednesday (25-04-23)The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach an unexpected 50.7 in April, significantly surpassing the anticipated 49.0 and March's figure of 50.2.Conversely, the S&P Global Services PMI is forecasted to be 51.4, which is below the predicted 52.8 and March's 54.4.New home sales in the US for March are reported at 724,000, exceeding the forecast of 684,000 and February's total of 674,000.Convert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Recently, cryptocurrencies demonstrated remarkable resilience as stock markets experienced declines amid rising tariffs. The market sentiment improved following the speeches given by US Treasury Secretary Bessent and President Trump, who downplayed the tariff issues with China. This positive outlook sparked renewed investor interest in the crypto market, particularly in gaming and NFT-related tokens, as projects in these areas increasingly incorporate AI technology. In the Gaming sector, there was a significant surge in trading activity, resulting in a 309.2% increase in trading volume, largely fueled by growing interest in Voxies ($VOXEL) and Treasure ($MAGIC), as highlighted in our section. Meanwhile, the Metaverse sector also saw a substantial rise in trading volume, which increased by 300.1% last week, driven primarily by strong demand for Treasure ($MAGIC).Why trade OTC?  Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: [email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!