来源：金融时报
6月会议记录显示，一些官员担心利率维持在较高水平会对劳动力市场产生影响。
更新于2024年7月4日 08:32 英国《金融时报》马丁•缪尔，凯特•杜吉德
美联储最近一次会议的纪要显示，美联储(Fed)官员认为，美国通胀正在降温，但在同意将利率从23年高点下调之前，他们仍需要“更大的信心”。
周三公布的6月会议纪要表示：“与会者表示，产品和劳动力市场的一系列进展支持了他们的判断，即价格压力正在减弱。”
一些利率制定者还指出，面对日益疲软的消费者需求，零售商正在降价。
但会议纪要显示，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员也认为，他们应将利率维持在5.25%至5.5%的当前水平，直到“出现更多信息，使他们更有信心”认为通胀正在“可持续地”向美联储2%的目标迈进。
几个月来，人们一直担心物价压力仍未像美联储官员希望的那样迅速缓解，这使他们不愿过快削减借贷成本。
美联储两年前大幅加息，以平息2022年达到数十年高点的通胀。去年通胀迅速下降，美联储首选的通胀指标今年5月份再次降至2.6%。但仍高于其目标。
不过，会议记录也显示，一些决策者担心，如果利率维持在较高水平的时间过长，失业率可能过快上升。
“几位与会者特别强调，随着劳动力市场的正常化，需求的进一步减弱现在可能会产生比不久前更大的失业反应，最近的劳动力需求减少更多地是通过职位空缺的减少体现出来的”。
美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)将于周五发布一份备受关注的就业市场报告。接受彭博社(Bloomberg)调查的经济学家预测，6月份新增就业岗位19万个，与上月相比将大幅放缓。
官员们在6月份的会议上表示，他们预计今年只会削减一次借贷成本，低于此前预测的三次。
通货膨胀和高借贷成本已经成为美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)面临的一个政治问题。民调显示，选民仍然对近年来的生活成本和他对经济的处理方式感到不满。
期货市场的交易员目前预计，9月份降息的可能性为70%——这是11月5日总统大选前的最后一次政策决定。预计年底前将有近两次降价。美联储下一次会议将在7月31日举行。
利率制定者在上次会议后的声明中暗示，其它因素，包括两年高利率对消费者需求的影响、劳动力市场的放宽以及供应的增加，将有助于进一步抑制通胀。
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