作者：Mippo 来源：X，@MikeIppolito_ 翻译：善欧巴，金色财经
我现在正在丹佛以太坊大会。许多人都在问同一个问题：“这一轮周期发生得太快了吗？这是否意味着它会更短？”
坦白说，这个问题引起了我的共鸣。2018-2020 年的熊市比这糟糕得多。它几乎持续了一整年，而且幻灭感要严重 10 倍。整个行业都岌岌可危，熊市每拖一天，情况都会恶化。
相比之下，2022-2023 年并没有那么糟糕。
如果你正在构建一个链上产品，甚至可能根本感觉不到熊市的存在。
项目仍然获得资金支持，即使处于熊市中心，会议仍然吸引了 2 万人参加。
这与 2019 年简直是天壤之别。
这让人们担心我们还没有遭受足够的痛苦。
对我来说，这有点迷信。
我理解杠杆需要平仓且炒作需要降温的观点，但这些都发生了。
该行业的一半人都被淘汰出局了。
今天我环顾四周，看到了周期的早期阶段的所有标志。
我们正处于比特币引领的典型现货市场反弹之中，比特币的支配地位似乎正在达到顶峰。
这为 ETHBTC 的巨大反弹铺平了道路，这应该会是下一个阶段。
还有许多其他健康指标，感谢 @intangiblecoins: https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins 发现并指出这些指标。MVRV（可以理解为所有比特币持有人的综合成本基础）和长期持币者与短期持币者的比率都表明周期处于非常早期阶段。
虽然 Coinbase 在 App Store 排行榜上有所上升，但排名仍然很低。
作为提醒，上个周期 Coinbase 在整个 App Store 应用排名中接近一年保持第一。
而现在它在金融类排行榜上仅排第 14 位，在所有应用中排名第 156 位。
我认为理解当前形势的最佳方式是，牛市已经拉开序幕。
没有理由期望它会比其他任何加密货币牛市更长、更短或有所不同。
许多人说这次 (牛市) 因为 ETF (交易所交易基金) 而不同。
虽然支持这一观点的一些论点令人信服，但我并不认同。
市场总会找到引入杠杆的方式，最终杠杆会引发泡沫破裂。人们会获利了结并卖出。这些都是永恒的真理。
尽管如此，我认为 ETF 会加速低点买入、高点卖出的趋势，随着时间的推移，随着更多低点被买入、更多高点被卖出，波动性应该会降低。
但这本来就已经在发生，这是一种现有趋势，并不是新趋势。
没有理由相信这一周期会比过去周期更短 (或更长)。
“我们还没有遭受足够的痛苦，因此牛市会更糟糕” 的观点充其量只是迷信。
停止担心，尽情享受吧，这是最有趣的部分。
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Miyuki