Trump predicts a surge in victory rate on polymarket: Is there a risk of market manipulation?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have surged past 53% on Polymarket, overtaking Vice President Kamala Harris.

This rise has sparked speculation, particularly surrounding a user known as "Fredi9999," who holds over 7.8 million Trump shares, making them the largest holder on the platform.

Manipulation or Genuine Sentiment?

Fredi9999’s strategic accumulation of shares, especially in key states like Pennsylvania, has drawn attention from market participants. Some have speculated that the user could be connected to high-profile figures such as billionaire Elon Musk, given the timing of their large bets coinciding with Musk’s pro-Trump social media posts. However, there is no direct evidence linking the two.

The size of the bets and the fervour with which Trump’s chances are supported on the platform have led many to question whether there is an attempt to manipulate market perceptions.

John Stefanidis, CEO of Real World Gaming, noted that while it is difficult to determine the motivation behind these moves, Polymarket’s structure generally ensures that genuine sentiment prevails in the long run.

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How Polymarket Works

Polymarket operates on a simple mechanism where the price of a share, ranging from $0 to $1, reflects the probability of a particular outcome. For instance, if a candidate's share costs 63 cents, this implies a 63% likelihood of that candidate winning. Traders can buy shares for the candidate they believe will win, with the value rising to $1 if the candidate succeeds.

In Trump's case, the current surge in share price does not appear to be backed by polling data or significant campaign developments. Instead, the rise seems to be driven by speculative betting and emotional sentiment, with some users displaying an overwhelming preference for Trump despite market conditions.

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Market Feedback and Emotional Trading

Adam Cochran, partner at crypto fund Cinneamhain Ventures, pointed out that many Trump backers on the platform appear to be betting based on personal beliefs rather than strategic market behaviour. He described this as creating a feedback loop, where strong convictions among traders push Trump’s odds higher, skewing market results.

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and an advisor to Polymarket, also commented on the situation, attributing the rise to a combination of speculative trading and market boredom. Silver explained that sometimes, when traders feel idle, market sentiment can take on a life of its own.

Silver also noted that while earlier attempts to influence public perception through prediction markets might have been effective, the increasing liquidity in these markets makes such tactics more expensive and difficult to maintain. As a result, the current Trump surge is likely driven by a combination of true believers and opportunistic traders.