US Treasury Yields Continue to Rise Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations

According to BlockBeats, on September 4, Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trend, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping from over 5% at the end of April to around 3.85%. This four-month rise marks the longest continuous increase since 2021. This movement is driven by market expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate by more than two percentage points within the next 12 months. Such a reduction would be the largest outside of economic downturns since the 1980s. For bond bulls, this scenario presents a risk: if the labor market, which showed significant cooling in July, remains resilient, the Federal Reserve may opt for a more gradual pace of rate cuts. The first major test of this will come on Friday when the U.S. government releases the non-farm payroll data for August. Economists anticipate that the report will show a rebound in job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate.