Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2. Kalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce. Odds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%. The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 deteriorated rapidly following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff order and the ensuing sell-off in capital markets, sparking fears of a prolonged bear market source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/odds-us-recession-2025-over-61-kalshi?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound