Société Générale Predicts a Tumultuous 2024 for the S&P 500

According to Yahoo News, investors should brace themselves for a rollercoaster ride in 2024, as Société Générale predicts a volatile year for the S&P 500. The French bank's outlook for the upcoming year, published on Monday, anticipates the benchmark index climbing to 4,750 points within the first quarter, nearing its all-time high of 4,796 reached in January 2022. However, the S&P 500 is expected to experience a 12% drop to 4,200 in mid-2024 due to a mild recession in the US, before rallying back to 4,750 in the fourth quarter as the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates. Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Société Générale, stated that by the end of 2024, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 150 basis points, GDP growth will slow down, and there will be clarity on the political election cycle. This will put the S&P 500 in 'buy-the-dip' territory as leading indicators for profits continue to improve. However, Kabra warns that the journey to the end of the year will not be smooth, with a mild recession anticipated in the middle of the year, a credit market sell-off in the second quarter, and ongoing quantitative tightening. Other top Wall Street strategists, such as Goldman Sachs' David Kostin, have also predicted that the S&P 500 could approach record highs in 2024, with Kostin expecting the index to trade at 4,700 points by year-end. Both Bank of America and RBC Capital Markets have set year-end targets of 5,000, which would see the index surpass its previous all-time highs.