Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, said the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in March may be too early. With U.S. Treasuries selling off across the board, Rieder said, "I think today's contraction is somewhat justified." Market movements reflect that Powell does not intend to "start cutting interest rates so aggressively so soon." Rieder said he was surprised by Powell's dovish tone at the FOMC meeting. Rieder said he is underweight the short end of the yield curve and favors the middle of the curve when the Fed does start to turn.
The sharp decline in longer-maturity Treasury yields has been surprising, and Reider said, "Demand for the long end of the curve has been one of the strangest things I've seen." Historically, the 30-year yield is just above 4%. Treasury yields are "less attractive" and contain "duration risk" at a time when short-term yields are higher. (Golden Ten)