According to a report published by Matrixport, it believes that all current spot Bitcoin ETF applications fail to meet a key requirement, so the SEC is expected to reject all proposals in January, which may occur in the second quarter of 2024.
Since traders began betting on ETF approval in September 2023, at least $14 billion in additional fiat and leverage has been deployed into the cryptocurrency space. Some of these flows may be related to easing macro conditions as the Fed turns dovish. However, of the $14 billion in additional long positions, $10 billion may be related to expectations of ETF approval.
If the SEC refuses to approve the ETF, there will be a massive liquidation in the market, with most of the $5.1 billion long positions expected to be liquidated, and the price of Bitcoin could quickly fall by 20% and fall back to the $36,000/$38,000 range. Even so, Matrix on Target still predicts that even if the SEC vetoes the ETF, the price of Bitcoin will still be higher than the $42,000 at the beginning of the year by the end of 2024.
Jixu
