CryptoQuant: Bitcoin halving effect may not be as expected, and investor demand growth is the key driver

A research report released by CryptoQuant pointed out that the supply shock brought by Bitcoin halving will not have a huge impact on Bitcoin price as many investors expected. Its report pointed out: "The impact of halving has been weakening because the number of newly issued Bitcoins relative to the number of Bitcoins sold by long-term holders has become smaller and smaller." Instead, the "key driver" affecting Bitcoin prices after this halving will be the increase in demand from investors holding a large number of Bitcoins. CryptoQuant said that the demand of whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins has grown to "the highest level ever", an increase of 11% month-on-month. Although Bitcoin halving will reduce supply, there were indeed several times between 2021 and 2023 when the monthly demand of long-term holders exceeded the supply in the same time period. However, the gap between the two is currently much larger than ever before, indicating that the impact of halving on Bitcoin price movements may not be as strong as in the past in the case of a persistent monthly supply shortage. Long-term holders are now accumulating about seven times more Bitcoin per month than new Bitcoins entering the market. The report states: "Long-term holder balances are increasing by as much as 200,000 Bitcoins per month, far exceeding the issuance of about 28,000 Bitcoins. After the halving, Bitcoin issuance will be reduced to about 14,000 Bitcoins per month." In addition, the total issuance of Bitcoin has plummeted to only 4% of the total available supply, which is a significantly smaller proportion than before previous Bitcoin halvings. The report wrote: "Before the first, second, and third halvings, issuance accounted for 69%, 27%, and 10% of the total available supply of Bitcoin, respectively." (Cointelegraph)