Trump's approval rating rises on prediction platforms such as Polymarket due to his pro-crypto stance

Taking a firm pro-crypto stance could strengthen Donald Trump’s lead over incumbent Joe Biden, judging by prediction markets. In the past week, Trump promised to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, founder of the dark web Silk Road, and vowed to make the United States a leader in the digital asset industry. In the same period, Biden’s share of bets on PredictIt fell from 46 cents to 44 cents. PredictIt is an election betting platform that settles transactions in US dollars. If Biden is re-elected, each share pays $1, otherwise it returns nothing. The price of 44 cents means that the market believes that there is a 44% chance that he will be re-elected. Cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket also showed similar changes. In the past seven days, Trump’s support on the platform has risen by two points to 56%, while Biden’s has fallen by two points to 37%. Polls show neither such a huge gap between the two candidates nor such a huge shift in the last week. Trump’s lead in the polls has only risen 80 basis points, to 1.7%, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they are a more reliable tool for measuring sentiment and forecasting because, unlike people answering questions on the phone, bettors have a stake in the situation. (CoinDesk)