JPMorgan pushes back first Fed rate cut forecast to November

JPMorgan Chase economists postponed their forecast for the first Fed rate cut from July to November due to stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data in May. Previously, JPMorgan Chase was one of the few institutions that still predicted a Fed rate cut in July. The bank's U.S. chief economist Michael Feroli currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in November and to cut interest rates quarterly next year. After the release of the May non-farm data, Feroli said, "The possibility of a rate cut in July now seems slim. Household survey indicators are expected to be weaker in the three employment reports from now to September, but given the recent momentum in job growth, we think it may take five reports from now to November to show weakness to pass the test of a rate cut." (Jinshi)