Analysis: Dollar more likely to react if data casts doubt on U.S. rate cut prospects

Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report that upcoming U.S. economic data may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will enter a rapid rate-cutting cycle in the coming months, but this is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the dollar. The first rate cut in September is now almost fully priced in by the market, and the market believes that there is a high probability of two more rate cuts before the end of the year. If the U.S. second-quarter economic growth data released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditure index released on Friday support these expectations, the dollar's reaction will be suppressed. "However, if these data cast a shadow on market expectations, I expect (the dollar) to have a more obvious move," Praefcke said. (Jinshi)