10x Research said in its market analysis that interpreting trends is particularly challenging during critical moments in economic and financial markets, as old narratives are questioned and new narratives take shape. During these times, traders and investors must pay close attention to market signals. It is critical to recognize that markets tend to focus on one dominant narrative before shifting their attention to the next topic. Understanding this dynamic is essential to effectively following market transitions.
After the German address sold BTC in late June, market concerns turned to the impending payout of Mt.Gox in early July. The story took a dramatic turn with the attack on Trump and his subsequent choice of Bitcoin holder JD Vance as his vice presidential pick. As Trump's odds of being elected soared to 70%, the price of Bitcoin was closely linked to these political developments. However, President Biden's announcement on July 21 that he would withdraw from the 2025 US presidential race brought this momentum to an abrupt halt.
Bitcoin once again broke the $70,000 mark after the discussion of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve emerged, which led to high expectations for Trump's speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference. Unfortunately, the speech did not live up to the hype. The rally ended when the U.S. government transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. The $60,000 to $70,000 trading range has remained stable, but a major shift in this range is coming.