Analysis: Bitcoin may break the "September decline" routine due to factors such as weakening of major selling forces

According to Spot On Chain analysis, although Bitcoin usually falls in September, this is not inevitable for the following reasons: 1. In July and August, three major selling forces have sold 170,917 BTC ($10.69 billion) to the market, including: German government: - Sold 49,859 BTC ($3 billion) in early July - No longer holds BTC Mt.Gox: - Repaid 95,958 BTC ($6.07 billion) in July and August - Still holds 44,898 BTC ($2.65 billion), only one-third of the initial position Genesis Trading: - Distributed 24,068 BTC ($1.55 billion) for repayment on August 2; - No longer holds BTC 2. It should be noted that the US government still holds 203,650 BTC ($120 million) confiscated by the US government. $ 1.48 billion), as in the case of the German government, which could be a big selling force, but the risk of selling is limited in the near term. In 2023 and 2024, the US government transferred 35,516 BTC ($ 1.48 billion) to Coinbase at about $ 41,637, but overall, the price reaction was weak because most sales were done through over-the-counter transactions and had little impact on the market. 3. Long-term holders hold firmly: In August, the Bitcoin supply of long-term holders increased by 262,000, bringing their total holdings to 14.82 million, accounting for 75% of the total supply. Among the top 10 anonymous Bitcoin wallets, 7 wallets have been idle for more than 2 years, holding 237,816 BTC ($ 14.04 billion), accounting for 1.2% of the circulating supply. 4. Bitcoin ETFs can become a new buying force: After several months of recovery, net fund flows fell slightly in August, making the outlook for September unclear. However, if the alternating positive and negative patterns continue, September could see positive net inflows, possibly between $500 million and $1.5 billion. Although this is just an estimate, past trends suggest that fund inflows could rebound. 5. Potential buying catalysts: -The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, which could boost demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs; -FTX will repay creditors $16 billion in cash instead of cryptocurrencies, which can be re-injected into Bitcoin and the entire market; -Both U.S. electoral parties have expressed support for favorable crypto regulation, which can further boost investor confidence.