Morgan Stanley: The US dollar index is unlikely to fall below 100

Morgan Stanley is skeptical that the dollar index will fall below the key 100 level, although risks are skewed toward further dollar weakness after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole conference that policy easing is on the horizon. "The 100 mark for the dollar index is important both psychologically and technically, and will be difficult to overcome without a shift in global power," David Adams, the bank's head of G-10 foreign exchange strategy, wrote in a report published Tuesday. "Persistent weakness in European economic data has reduced the appeal of selling the dollar." He added that political risks in Europe may still be underestimated, while the 2024 U.S. election is a clear dollar-positive risk event. Favor short USD/JPY in preparation for lower U.S. interest rates; long GBP and AUD, short EUR and CAD.