RBC: If the US unemployment rate rises to 4.4%, a 50 basis point rate cut will become a high probability event

Michael Reid, an economist at RBC Capital Markets, said that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4%, a 50 basis point rate cut will become a high probability event. But he also said that if the unemployment rate falls and job growth remains at 100,000 or above, the Fed will be cautious about a large rate cut. Especially with the presidential election approaching, the Fed may be accused of favoring the ruling party by cutting interest rates to boost the economy. The futures market expects the Fed to usher in its first 25 basis point rate cut this month, with a cumulative rate cut of 1 percentage point this year, and several more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. (Jinshi)