The Fed is scheduled to release its interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations at 2 a.m. next Thursday. Traders are pricing in an almost equal chance of a 25 basis point and 50 basis point rate cut next week. The changing bets reflect one of the key questions facing markets today: Will the Fed stop the slack in the labor market with aggressive rate cuts, or will it take a slower pace of cuts to stay on the sidelines. Federal funds rate futures pricing shows the Fed will cut rates by more than two percentage points in the next 12 months, a scenario rarely seen outside of a recession.
James St., chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, which manages $5.3 billion in assets. Aubin said, "With the S&P 500 near all-time highs and credit spreads narrowing, starting a rate-cutting cycle with a big cut seems to happen only if the Fed knows something that others don't. I think a 50 basis point cut may do more harm than good in terms of market sentiment." In any case, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points next week, as long as Powell does not oppose the expectation of one or even two 50 basis point cuts in the last two meetings of the year, the meeting may be seen as a dovish rate cut. (Jinshi)