UBS: US retail sales data may affect the Fed's interest rate cut, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year

Before the Fed's interest rate decision, the US retail sales data, known as the "horror data", will be released. UBS said that they are closely watching the retail sales and industrial production data, and the weakness of these data may affect the Fed's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points. UBS said that US inflation has slowed to the point where interest rates can be cut. The agency outlined their "baseline expectation" that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points for the rest of the year and another 100 basis points in 2025. UBS added that as the pace of interest rate cuts accelerates, the US dollar will fall further and gold will rise further. (Jinshi)