Interest rate derivatives traders expect the benchmark rate to fall to about 2.75% by the end of next year, equivalent to ten 25 basis point rate cuts.

Interest rate derivatives traders now expect the benchmark rate to fall to about 2.75% by the end of next year, from about 5.25% currently. That's equivalent to 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points each, a move the Fed would likely take only in the event of a recession. While few on Wall Street predict a recession anytime soon, most agree that the risk of a recession is higher now than it was a few months ago. (Jinshi)