Commerzbank: The Fed’s “small step” cannot rule out subsequent “big moves”

Commerzbank analyzed that after the European Central Bank took the lead in cutting deposit rates by 25 basis points last week, some other central banks will announce their policy decisions this week. In the end, most decisions may keep interest rates unchanged-except for the most important one, of course. It would be a big surprise if the Fed did not start the rate cut cycle on Wednesday. Volkmar Baur, an analyst at the bank, pointed out: "At the beginning of this week, the market expected the probability of the Fed's first major rate cut to be slightly higher than 50%. Our economists still expect a 25 basis point rate cut, and there are good reasons for this." "However, a small first step does not rule out big moves later. This is why the current risks tend to be weaker US dollars." (Jinshi)