Analysis: Bitcoin options market shows reflexivity, traders are betting heavily on upside volatility

Nick Forster, founder of DeFi derivatives protocol Derive, said that traders who want to predict the next major price movement of Bitcoin only need to pay attention to the derivatives market, especially options contracts, which are beginning to see a "reflexivity season." Reflexivity refers to the fact that the behavior and expectations of market participants will affect the price of an asset, and changes in price will affect the behavior of participants, forming a feedback loop. Forster pointed out that the 30-day bullish/bearish skewness of Bitcoin options contracts will continue to "move higher", which means that traders are betting heavily on upward volatility and expect greater market volatility. "As the price of Bitcoin rises, traders expect the rally to continue, driving a self-reinforcing cycle of prices," Forster explained, saying that these traders expect the price of Bitcoin to rise to $80,000-90,000 by the end of November. "With important political and economic events approaching, market sentiment is currently preparing for possible volatility," Forster said, referring in part to the upcoming US presidential election. (Decrypt)