CICC: Taking into account the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week

A CICC research report pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data in October was weak and lower than expected, partly affected by hurricanes and strikes. The hurricane forced a large number of people to evacuate, and resulted in a significant reduction in the response rate to business surveys. Employment in leisure accommodation and other service industries dropped sharply, and the number of people unable to go to work due to weather conditions increased sharply. The strike resulted in a significant shrinkage in manufacturing employment. But these are temporary disturbances whose effects could reverse in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling and shows no signs of rapid deterioration. Taking into account overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and monetary policy will continue to return to normalization, but the pace of interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market had previously expected. (Golden Ten)