Brian, a long-time strategist and head of Wind Shift Capital Advisors, said he expects the stock market to experience turbulence in the next 12 months. Because the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates to very low levels as the market thinks, borrowing costs may indeed rise from now on. This may curb lending, slow investment, and cause U.S. and global stock markets to fall by 7%-12%.
"I think the crisis we face is that when interest rates start to rise, the government cannot continue to boost the economy in an environment of rising interest rates because they have lost the support of the market," Brian said.
Brian's prediction may be counterintuitive to investors who have been pricing in a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. But he said the U.S. economy faces too much inflationary pressure in the medium term to guarantee the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing policy. (Jinshi)