QCP Capital: Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate by about 3.5% on election night, and the market may underestimate the risks after the election

QCP Capital posted on its channel that in the stock market, bond market and cryptocurrency market, the market anxiety is becoming more and more obvious as the most stalemate presidential election in US history is about to kick off. The "Trump trade" (i.e. betting on a stronger dollar, rising cryptocurrencies and rising Treasury yields) has gradually heated up on the eve of the election, thanks to Trump's leading position in the prediction market. However, if Harris ultimately wins, these gains may be quickly wiped out, causing the market to fluctuate violently overnight. The cryptocurrency market currently expects Bitcoin spot prices to fluctuate by about 3.5% on election night. But traders may underestimate the risks after the election: the lack of volatility premium after November 8 shows that the market expects a quick election result, but may underestimate the impact of potential delays or controversial results. The results of the congressional elections are equally important and may even have the same influence as the results of the presidential election. At present, the options market shows a balance between call options and put options. In the past few days, there has been a lot of buying behavior on both the upper call options and the lower put options. However, Bitcoin is still regarded as part of the "Trump trade." Bitcoin spot prices fell on Monday as spot ETFs saw large outflows, coinciding with a poll showing Harris holding a narrow lead in Iowa. Expect wild swings in Bitcoin spot prices as election results roll in tomorrow.