Deutsche Bank: Fed will not cut interest rates next year

Deutsche Bank released a report on this week's FOMC meeting, which stated that the Fed meeting reinforced our base case view that the skip (rate cut) at the January meeting is likely to turn into an extended pause (rate cut) in 2025. We continue to view the nominal neutral rate as around 3.75%, and it is necessary for the committee to remain restrictive relative to that level. Therefore, we reiterate our view that the federal funds rate is likely to remain above 4% next year, with no further rate cuts as the base case. The report also noted that some Fed participants have begun to incorporate the potential economic impact of President-elect Trump's policies into their forecasts, which could lead to higher inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. On the labor market, Powell described it as solid, but noted that the current level of job creation is below what is needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate.