QCP posted on its official channel that due to weak liquidity, there is a clear gap in BTC spot. Any upward rebound in the past few days has been limited by continued selling pressure. As the end of the year approaches, BTC's momentum has weakened significantly, with a net outflow of $1.8 billion from spot ETFs since December 19, and MicroStrategy's BTC purchases have slowed significantly. The weak price trend of cryptocurrencies reflects broader market sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling more than 1% for the third time in eight trading days, a pricing behavior of the market amid increased global trade uncertainty in 2025.
Looking ahead to Q1 2025, despite optimism about cryptocurrency-friendly regulations after Trump's inauguration, QCP believes that the key catalyst may appear in January as institutions readjust their asset allocation. As BTC is widely adopted by many institutions (joined by university endowment funds this year), allocations may increase, strengthening Bitcoin's dominance, stabilizing spot trends, and bringing volatility dynamics closer to stocks. Demand for downside put options is expected to strengthen, while selling of upside call options is expected to increase.