UBS: Trump's tariffs are the biggest risk to the global economic outlook

Arend Kapteyn, chief economist at UBS Group AG, said tariffs are the biggest risk to the global economic outlook. UBS predicts that global economic growth will slow to 2.9% this year from about 3.2% in 2024. If Trump goes ahead with the tariff policy he proposed during his campaign, it could bring "the level of U.S. trade restrictiveness back to levels we haven't seen since the mid-1930s." He added: "If these tariffs are actually imposed, there may be a lot of additional downside risks to our forecasts." However, Kapteyn is skeptical that global tariffs will be implemented because it is tricky at the legal level. (Jinshi)