Citigroup report predicts three main scenarios and market impacts of US tariff policy day on April 2

Odaily Planet Daily News Citigroup predicts three main scenarios for the US tariff policy day on April 2 in its latest report and analyzes the corresponding market impact: Only reciprocal tariffs are announced: the market reaction is relatively limited in this scenario. Reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT): the US dollar index may rise by 50-100 basis points immediately, and global stock markets may fall. In addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, industry tariffs are also included: the market reaction may be more intense in this scenario. The report pointed out that after the S&P 500 started the worst quarter since 2020, analysts warned that the potential risk of subsequent declines is greater than that of increases. Analysts believe that future tariffs and retaliatory actions will be key, and the market reaction on April 2 will depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs, and the speed of other countries' response to reciprocal tariffs.