Odaily Planet Daily News CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin bull cycle may have ended for the following reasons:
There is a concept in on-chain data called realized market value. Here's how it works: When BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it's considered a "buy," and when it leaves, it's considered a "sell." Using this idea, you can estimate the average cost basis of each wallet, multiply it by the number of BTC held, and you get the total realized market value, which is usually considered the total capital that enters the Bitcoin market through actual on-chain activity, while the market value is based on the latest trading price on the exchange.
When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can push up prices and, therefore, market value. Strategy took advantage of this, and by issuing convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, the book value of the Bitcoin they held grew far more than the actual capital invested. But when selling pressure is high, even large purchases can't change the price, such as when Bitcoin traded near $100,000, the market volume was huge, but the price barely changed.
The realized market value shows how much actual money has entered the market, while the market value reflects how the price reacts. If realized market cap is growing but market cap is stagnant or falling, it means that capital is flowing in but prices are not rising - a classic bearish sign. On the other hand, if realized market cap is flat and market cap is surging, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is pushing prices up - a bullish sign. We are currently seeing the former, where capital is entering the market but prices are not responding, which is a classic feature of a bear market.
In short: when small capital is driving prices up, it's a bull market. When large capital is also unable to drive prices up, it's a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Selling pressure could ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months - so a short-term rebound seems unlikely.