Goldman Sachs expects weaker U.S. economic data this summer

Goldman Sachs economists predict that fourth-quarter U.S. GDP will grow by only 0.5% from the fourth quarter of 2024 as tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on the economy. Currently, business and consumer surveys point to a slowdown, but official economic data do not yet show this sign. They infer that economic indicators may begin to show a recession more clearly in mid-to-late summer. "The evolution of the data in recent weeks is consistent with previous 'event-driven' growth slowdowns. However, it is too early to draw strong conclusions from the limited data currently available."