Bitcoin will face a "cycle bottom" this year, with a potential drop of more than 50% from current levels, the study said.
In a Twitter post on June 1, Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicted that 2022 will be the year Bitcoin “capitulates.”
Based on the historical pattern of bitcoin halving cycles, this year should be the bear market black sheep of the current four-year cycle, Venturefounder wrote.
Like 2018 and its bear market, BTC/USD should find its own macro bottom sometime in 2022, which could be between $14,000 and $21,000 if you count previous declines from all-time highs.
“670 days until Bitcoin’s next halving, we’re seeing Bitcoin’s performance on time compared to past cycles,” one tweet explained:
“Over the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate for the next 6 months and hit a cycle bottom ($14-21k) before hitting $2.8-$40k for most of 2023 and the next ~$40k again before halving.”
Such predictions, while not good news, are not without precedent. After hitting $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to return to $13,800 seven months later before reversing down again, bottoming out at a March 2020 low of $3,600.
Even the highest price in 2019 was not enough to break the previous record of $20,000 set in December 2017.
Venturefounder believes that this level may once again become a feature of spot price charts. Still, those willing to ride the wave (even now) will be on the right side of history.
“In other words, buying Bitcoin is the best bet between now and the next 6-12 months. This is probably the best 3-year ROI ever,” he added:
“We may not be at the bottom of the cycle, but we are within range of the bottom of the BTC cycle. That’s the best you can do when you’re riding the market cycle.”
Meanwhile, others have estimated a likely bottom range at or near $14,000.
That price would be about 80% down from the current all-time high of $69,000.
The current price of around $31,000 is a relatively small drop, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
BTC/USD pulls back from all-time highs Source: Glassnode
Last month, fellow analyst Rekt Capital estimated a potential price target of $15,500 for BTC/USD should it break below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may have trouble pushing the market that low. MicroStrategy, the publicly traded firm that holds the most bitcoin, has pledged to buy as long as the bitcoin price approaches the $20,000 mark.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, also confirmed that he is interested in $20,000 bitcoin.
Cointelegraph Chinese is a blockchain news information platform, and the information provided only represents the author's personal opinion, has nothing to do with the position of the Cointelegraph Chinese platform, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Readers are requested to establish correct currency concepts and investment concepts, and earnestly raise risk awareness.
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