ETH fell and fell, and the market has been falling for 12 consecutive weeks, can it still rise?

The market in the currency circle has fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, and it is estimated that this week will also fall with a high probability. Now I am more Buddhist than a Buddhist monk, and my heart is empty and completely numb. It's not the market that makes me numb, but the mainstream currency Ethereum. In the past two days, there has been a big drop with a lot of altcoins, which has triggered a new round of panic in the currency circle... Many people in the currency circle said with emotion that the big bear market Are you coming? What the hell are these quotes. Let's talk about it from a small perspective, what happened to this market?

ETH falling below $1000

June 13, 2022, an unforgettable day.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether ( ETH ), fell to a low of $950 on Uniswap, and while ETH rebounded sharply after dropping to $950, a bearish continuation setup for ETH/USD could be another take.

To make up for it, the friends who were liquidated participated in the small interaction at the end of the article, and the top three who left a message and liked each gave a cup of Luckin coffee to show comfort.

There are also some omens that can be seen when there are some extreme turmoil and huge fluctuations in Eth. After crypto lending service Celsius announced it was suspending withdrawals under "extreme market conditions," investors feared a repeat of the old systemic threat, and there was a panic sell-off, directly drying up the pie and Ethereum for 18 months new low since.

At the same time, after this news happened, according to the data on the chain, an anonymous giant whale sold about 93,000 ETH within six hours, at a price of more than 120 million US dollars.

At around 11:00 AM on June 13, Beijing time, anonymous whales dumped more than 65,000 ETH to obtain a variety of "stable coins", including USD Coin ( USDC ), Tether ( USDT ) and Dai ( DAI ). Evidence points to the sale of ETH held by the anonymous whale to pay off nearly $73 million worth of debt on lending platform Oasis.app. During this sell-off, ETH’s liquidation price dropped from $1,200 to $875.

Within a few hours of the first dump, there was another frantic dump of nearly 28,000 ETH to pay off another $32 million in debt. As a result, the whale dumped roughly 93,000 ETH worth over $120 million in just six hours.

Bad news for ETH rumors

No snowflake is innocent during an avalanche. Then the sharp drop of ETH has nothing to do with everyone here.

Rumor 1, V God is Chinese, and ETH is a Chinese fund.

The reason is that it didn’t take long for V God to change his Chinese name (Punlin) on the front foot, and it was revealed that he was from Xinjiang on the back foot. At that time, I thought it was outrageous. When I saw the news on Twitter, I would say that it was just "one picture at the beginning, and the rest depends on making up."

Is this information said to have a nose and eyes, and later it was rumored that he was singing "little luck" in a certain KTV. Could it be that V God is really his own person? Well. As soon as the news is released, wherever there are hot spots, there will be Sun Cut. Immediately claiming that $42 billion is needed to privatize ETH, the money is enough.

After all, this seems to prove that ETH is made by Chinese people, so, do you believe it?

Rumor 2, ETH is unanchored.

During this period, I also saw another rumor that ETH was going to break the anchor.

This sentence is likely to be bad news for the downward trend of ETH, which is hyped by the market. Because, this problem has certain inducements, usually what we say about anchoring means that A is exchanged for B according to a certain ratio, and a steth can be exchanged for a 1:1 dialogue after the successful merger of Ethereum, so there is no such thing Anchor that said.

Capital is no longer optimistic about ETH

The wall is falling and everyone is pushing it, which is most vividly expressed in the capital market.

ZhuSu, the founder of Three Arrows Capital, has deleted ETH, AVAX, LUNA, SOL, NEAR, MINA and other cryptocurrencies from his Twitter profile, and currently only keeps "Bitcoin". These bigwigs and institutions have started to clear their warehouses and run away. Is it necessary to stay? The success of an industry is inseparable from the support of all parties. When everyone starts to pursue profits, this is the beginning of the decline of an industry.

In addition to Three Arrows Capital, according to WhaleStats data, ETH whales bought out an average of 151 AAVE, worth $26,262, which is the third largest encrypted asset purchased by ETH whales in the past 24 hours. Also in the DeFi field, ETH whales are increasing their holdings of Compound, and some financially powerful tycoons on the ETH network are also increasing their holdings of Aave, Compound and other centralized altcoins, as shown in the figure below.

ETH whales are not optimistic, and they buy other currencies one after another, which also gives a bad signal to the market. The boss is no longer optimistic about the mainstream currency, so I want to ask for the altcoin.

Unfavorable market environment

The price of ETH has dropped a lot in the past week, but most of it happened in these two days. One reason is that the U.S. Department of Labor reported that inflation hit 8.6% in May, the highest level since December 1981. Higher CPI also aggravated investors' concerns, which in turn forced the Fed to continue to raise interest rates. At the same time, the U.S. government has reduced its $9 trillion balance sheet, which has also reduced people's interest in investing in some riskier assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Not only does the government not get corresponding support, former Microsoft founder Bill Gates commented: "I like to invest in valuable things. The value of companies depends on the extent to which they produce high-quality products. The value of cryptocurrencies is only based on a One person decides how much another person will pay for it." Later, stock guru Warren Buffett disagreed.

Since then, confidence in the crypto market has been lost due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the pressure on the global economy following the COVID-19 lockdown.

ETH miners are about to become unprofitable

For the first time since 2020, ETH mining has become unprofitable for many miners connected to the traditional energy grid. The price of Ethereum keeps dropping while energy prices are skyrocketing.

According to relevant data, the average cost of electricity in states such as New England, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island exceeds $0.22 per kilowatt-hour. That said, using a single Nvidia 3090 overclocked to generate 130mh/s would cost the miner about $1.85-$2.13 per day. At today's prices, the Ethereum reward for the same GPU is only (0.001625 ETH) $2.03. Therefore, any miner paying more than $0.245 for electricity is now paying more than the value of Ether being mined.

So this means that in order to be profitable, the price of the token needs to rise significantly, or either the price of energy is reduced to make miners profitable, and to achieve profitability of miners, the price needs to rise to at least $1,400 or more.

further reading

The Ethereum blockchain will most likely destroy ApeCoin.

Recently, there was a voting process on whether the ApeCoin DAO should stay on the ETH blockchain. Approximately 7.1 million ApeCoin tokens were used throughout the voting process. The NFT market has encountered multiple problems in projects developed on the Ethereum blockchain, such as transaction speed and gas fees. Therefore, the best known as BAYC and MAYC decided to move ApeCoin from the Ethereum blockchain network. But the results of the voting process show that investors want to stay on the existing blockchain network of the NFT market.

Millions of APE token holders want this NFT to remain on the existing blockchain network. As we all know, the Ethereum blockchain has changed from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism to a proof-of-stake mechanism. Benefit from the additional new features of Ethereum 2.0 to make NFT flourish. However, remaining on the Ethereum blockchain network appears to be a risky business for ApeCoin.

write at the end

Then let's go back to the previous question, can the market continue to rise after 12 consecutive weeks of negative decline? I have always believed that the future of the blockchain is worth looking forward to, but the current bad fundamentals have caused the overall situation. There is also part of the reason for believing that the market will get better. Although there have been several times when the cryptocurrency and the stock market, especially the U.S. stock market, have risen and fallen inconsistently, in most cases they are still highly correlated. It is not difficult to understand that the collapse of cryptocurrency is not an isolated event. , although there may be a decline in the future, but from a historical perspective, the stock market tends to rebound after a sharp decline. Bear markets are not a reason for us to panic, but rather a reminder that portfolio diversification is a good time to reduce risk, as well as how much risk we can take and how much time it takes to recover losses.

Today's little interaction

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He deleted Pulin today...

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The above views represent the views of the author only, not the views of the platform. Investment is risky, please invest carefully!