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Massive Accumulation by Short-Term BTC Holders Suggests 'Final Selling' by Sellers
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The near-term surge in holdings by short-term Bitcoin holders may herald a “final sell” by sellers, meaning a capitulation event has occurred, preparing the market for months of accumulation.
On August 15, the market analysis company Glassnode pointed out in its latest chain weekly report that since the catastrophic crash of LUNA in May, short-term holders (STH) have accumulated 330,000 bitcoins. As such, they could be harbingers of danger on the way to a market recovery.
During the massive sell-off that began in May and into June, short-term holders of Bitcoin established a new trend of buying the extremely cheap bitcoin at or below $20,000, making They are in a "favorable financial position".
The report noted that long-term holders (LTH) selling of about 200,000 BTC since May and net outflows from exchanges appear to be the main factors behind the surge in supply of short-term holders. Taken together, these events suggest that capitulation has occurred, with short-term holders “coming in at the time of the sell-off and now holding Bitcoin on a lower cost basis.”
Short-term holders are defined as wallets that hold Bitcoin for less than 154 days. If you hold it for 155 days, you will become a long-term holder.
Typically, short-term holders buy Bitcoin at or near all-time highs and sell at much lower prices because “extreme STH accumulation often coincides with bull market topping patterns.” However, Buyers in May and June created a "constructive divergence" that bucked the trend, Glassnode said.
It added: "This type of event describes the transfer of Bitcoin to new buyers who were initially classified as short-term holders, who had a lower cost base, but have since then been in a position to favor HODL( long-term holding) financial position.”
The next aspect of the market reversal that analysts must watch is whether new short-term holders in May and June “have the confidence to hang on” and push prices higher, Glassnode said.
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