The Leading Indicator of the US Economy Drops for Sixth Month in a Row

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022

The Leading Indicator of the US Economy Drops for Sixth Month in a Row, Potentially “Signaling a Recession”

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in August 2022 to 116.2 (2016=100), after declining by 0.5 percent in July. The LEI fell 2.7 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2022, a reversal from its 1.7 percent growth over the previous six months.

“The US LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month potentially signaling a recession,” Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “Among the index’s components, only initial unemployment claims and the yield spread contributed positively over the last six months—and the contribution of the yield spread has narrowed recently.”

“Furthermore, labor market strength is expected to continue moderating in the months ahead. Indeed, the average workweek in manufacturing contracted in four of the last six months—a notable sign, as firms reduce hours before reducing their workforce. Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve’s rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures. The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.”

US LEI continued to decline signaling a contraction in economic activity may be imminent

Elevated recessions risks persist

The long-term trajectory of the US LEI turned negative in August

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in August 2022 to 108.7 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.5 percent in July. The CEI rose by 0.6 percent over the six-month period from February to August 2022, slower than its growth of 1.5 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in August 2022 to 115.4

(2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in July. The LAG is up 4.4 percent over the six-month period from February to August 2022, faster than its growth of 2.5 percent over the previous six-month period.