On Oct. 15, news that a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could start trading as early as next week pushed the price of bitcoin to $62,933, but the rally has since cooled.
Some market participants believe that traders who bought on rumors of the approval of a bitcoin ETF product may sell after the news. The approval of a futures-based ETF is unlikely to provide a long-term boost to bitcoin prices as it did in the fourth quarter of 2020, cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital said in an update.
While high volatility cannot be ruled out in the short term, investors should focus on major trends and not get caught up in minor corrections that are part of the way to new all-time highs.
According to Foxbit founder João Canhada, a bitcoin gift his daughter received when she was born in 2017 has reaped a 6,500% profit. While it's impossible for her to trade bitcoin at such a young age, the gains show that patient investors who don't get distracted by small dips can eventually reap big gains.
Will Bitcoin's Rise to a New All-Time High Pull Altcoins Along? Let’s examine the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that are likely to outperform in the short term.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin surged above the $58,000 resistance and $60,000 psychological barrier on Oct. 15. The bears are trying to stall the advance at $62,933, but the positive sign is that the bulls are not giving up too much ground. This suggests that traders are not closing their positions after the recent rally in anticipation of another rally.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought zone, suggesting that the bulls are in control. If the price turns up from the current levels and breaks the $62,933-$64,854 resistance zone, BTC/USDT could rise towards $75,000.
The immediate support to watch on the downside is $58,000. A breakout and close below this level could prompt short-term traders to lock in profits, pulling the price down to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, $54,336).
A bounce off the 20-day exponential moving average would indicate that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. Then, the bulls will make one more attempt to resume the uptrend. Conversely, a breakout and close below the 20-day EMA would indicate that the bullish momentum has weakened.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC/USDT has been rising in a steady uptrend. Since BTC/USDT broke out of the symmetrical triangle, the bears have been unable to pull the price lower and sustain it below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the chances of a break above $62,933 could increase, as it would indicate that traders are not waiting for a deeper correction to buy. This bullish assumption will be invalidated if the bears pull lower and sustain BTC/USDT below the 50-day SMA. Such a move could open the door for a drop to $54,000 and then to $52,290.
ETH/USDT
Ethereum (ETH) broke out and closed above the neckline on Oct. 14, completing a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The long wick from October 16 shows that the bears are trying to stall the upward move in the $4,000 to $4,027.88 zone.
If the price turns down from current levels, ETH/USDT may fall to the breakout level of the neckline. This is an important support level for the bulls to defend. If the price bounces off this level, the bulls will make another attempt to clear the hurdle above.
A breakout and close above $4,027.88 could clear the way for a rally to the all-time high of $4,372.72 and the next pattern target of $4,657. Conversely, if there is a break below the moving averages, the price could drop to $3,257. If this support is broken, the bears will have the upper hand.
The bears are holding onto the psychological resistance at $4,000, while the bulls are trying to keep the price above the 20-day EMA. The relative strength index has fallen near the mid-range, and the 20-day EMA has flattened, suggesting a possible near-term consolidation.
A breakout and close above $4,000 could signal a resumption of the upside move. Conversely, a break below the neckline will be the first sign that momentum may be weakening. Ethereum may drop to $3400.
SOL/USDT
SOL broke out and closed above the downtrend line on Oct. 15, the first sign that the bulls were attempting a comeback. The bears attempted to pull the price back below the downtrend line on October 16 but failed.
If the bulls sustain the price above the downtrend line, SOL/USDT could rise to the 61.80% resistance at $177.80. This is an important level for the bears to defend, as if the bulls breach this hurdle, SOL/USDT could rise to the 78.6% retracement level at $194.60 before retesting the all-time high at $216.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from current levels or overhead resistance and breaks below the moving averages, this will signal traders to close their positions on a pullback. Then, SOL/USDT could drop to the critical support at $116.
The 4-hour chart shows that SOL/USDT has been trading between $156.36 and $165.61 since breaking the downtrend line. If the buyers push and sustain the price above $165.61, a resumption of the uptrend is possible.
The first target is between $174.86 and $177.79. Alternatively, a break below $156.36 could open the door for a drop to $147.11. Until then, SOL/USDT may continue to consolidate within a tight range.
MATIC/USDT
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading in a wide range between $1 and $1.8 for the past few days. The 20-day EMA ($1.32) has started to turn up and the RSI has risen into positive territory, showing that the bulls are trying to gain the upper hand.
MATIC/USDT could rise to $1.80, which could prove to be a tough hurdle. If the price turns down from this resistance, MATIC/USDT could drop to the 20-day EMA.
A strong bounce off this support would indicate that market sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. This will increase the odds of a breakout and close above $1.80.
If this happens, MATIC/USDT could start a new uptrend to $2.40 before retesting the all-time high of $2.70. Conversely, if the price turns down from current levels and breaks below the moving averages, MATIC/USDT could drop to $1.20 and then to $1.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in positive territory, suggesting that bulls have the upper hand in the short-term. The bulls pushed the price above the $1.45-$1.50 overhead resistance zone, but sellers at the highs pulled the price back to this area.
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make another attempt to resume the upside. A breakout and close above $1.63 could clear the way for a move up to $1.80. This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns lower and breaks below $1.45.
FTM/USDT
Fantom’s FTM token is in a strong uptrend. The bulls managed to defend the breakout level of $1.94, showing that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
Rising moving averages point to favor for buyers, but negative divergence on RSI warns that bullish momentum may be fading. If the bulls push the price above $2.45, the uptrend could continue with $3.20 as the next target.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $2.45, FTM/USDT could drop to $1.94 and consolidate between these two levels for a few days. A break and close below the 20-day EMA ($1.85) could signal the start of a deeper correction.
The bulls are currently attempting to sustain the price above the descending channel. If they can do this, FTM/USDT could rise to $2.45. This level could act as a strong resistance, but if the bulls overcome it, the uptrend could resume.
Alternatively, if the price cannot sustain above the channel, it will indicate demand drying up at higher levels. Then FTM/USDT may continue to trade within the channel. A breakout and close below the channel could drag FTM/USDT down to $1.50.
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