Author: Riyue Xiaochu

This article will deeply analyze the on-chain data of AAVE, the time is September 24.

Key points:

1) AAVE has a circulating market value of 2.3 billion US dollars and a FDV of 2.46 billion US dollars. 43,000 AAVEs are newly circulated every month.

2) On-chain data shows that funds in the US time zone dominate the increase in AAVE holdings.

3) Most of AAVE's large holders are in a profitable state, but the overall profit is not high. From the perspective of profit and loss, most of the large holders are not the ones in the bull market in 2021, and most of the chips in the middle have been fully changed hands.

4) The address of the AAVE holder has a relatively large amount of funds, and is a powerful large funder.

1 AAVE Overview

1) The total amount of AAVE is 16 million. According to coinmarketcap data, the current circulation of AAVE is 14.93 million, with a circulation market value of 2.3 billion US dollars and FDV of 2.46 billion US dollars.

2) From the perspective of chip allocation, AAVE is mainly divided into two parts. 13 million 20-year exchange tokens are exchanged from LEND, and 3 million are used for ecological incentives. 3 million, 43,000 new circulations per month. The functions are divided into two parts, one for the rewards of AAVE pledgers, and the other for the rewards of the creation team.

3) The AAVE creation wallet still holds 790,000 AAVE, worth 122 million US dollars.

2 On-chain chips Distribution

2.1 Top 10 holding addresses:

1) Holding address 9, the address where LEND migrated to AAVE, and there are still 330,000 AAVE that have not been migrated, worth 50 million US dollars. Due to the time interval of several years, it is highly likely that the wallets of these tokens have forgotten the private keys. This is equivalent to the fact that these chips are considered to be destroyed.

2) The institution with the largest holding is blockchain capital, which holds 233,000 tokens. Blockchain capital is an investment institution of AAVE, and most of the chips have not been sold and are held to this day.

2.2 Overall chip distribution

From the perspective of chips, AAVE holds 37.29% in the hands of the project, but this includes staking chips, which belong to users. There are 2.19 million in Binance Exchange, accounting for 13.07%. The second largest is coinbase, Kraken, upbit, etc. The main on-chain liquidity of AAVE is in Balancer, which holds 880,000 AAVE and has a liquidity of 170 million US dollars. Secondly, in AAVE's uniswap, the liquidity is 13M.

From the perspective of public chain distribution, most of AAVE's 16 million are on the Ethereum main chain. Other chains have more, including BSC: 500,000. Polygon: 229,000.

2.3 Staking situation

1) From the perspective of changes in staking, AAVE has maintained a staking volume of 2 to 3 million. Since the start of staking in 2020, it quickly reached 2.8 million in October. Then it reached a maximum of 3.6 million in February 21.

2) From the perspective of the change in the number of pledges, AAVE pledgers will also be affected by the bear market to a certain extent. In the bear market of 22, the amount of AAVE pledged dropped significantly, from 3.17 million to 1.97 million, a drop of 1.2 million. And when the market was not good in the second half of 23, there was also a continuous decline.

3) After May 24, AAVE's pledge continued to rise again. Now it has recovered to 2.99 million.

3 Analysis of Exchange Chips

In the above figure, the first one represents the daily deposit/withdrawal of the exchange, where yellow represents the net deposit of the day, and blue represents the net withdrawal of the day. The shaded area is the accumulation of deposits and withdrawals. The second figure represents the average amount of each deposit/withdrawal, which is used to determine whether the deposit and withdrawal are the behavior of large investors or retail investors. Intuitively, the higher the value, the behavior of large investors, and the lower the peak value, the behavior of retail investors.

1) From the deposit and withdrawal of the exchange, from -89,000 on August 4 to +190,000 on September 16, this means that in more than a month, the cumulative net inflow in the exchange is about 280,000. However, there is some uncertainty here. The exchange here includes Coinbase, and Coinbase has Prime Custody service. AAVE deposited in Custody service should not be counted as user deposit to Coinbase. On the contrary, users give AAVE to Coinbase for token custody, which is a performance of long-term holding.

2) From the average amount of each deposit. The amount of single coin deposit is higher than the amount reflected. The maximum value is on August 9. There is an average deposit of 1,176. It shows that it is a deposit by a large account. This is very consistent with our assumption above. Because providing Prime Custody service is definitely the behavior of a large account. I excluded the data of Coinbase exchange and counted the changes of AAVE holdings on other exchanges. It can be clearly seen that AAVE has a clear net outflow since July 25. It has dropped from 3.45 million to 3.28 million, with a net outflow of 170,000.

The above picture shows the number of transfers between the wallet addresses (contract addresses) of dex and cex, which is the cumulative number of transfers in and out. Please note that the above time is UTC.

From cex, it can be seen that the most active time on CEX is UTC 15:00, 16:00, and 17:00. If converted to Beijing time, China is 11 pm, 12 pm, and 1 am. And for the United States, the world is just as active. The transfer-in and transfer-out volumes are the smallest at 12:00 and 17:00 Beijing time, which are active times for Asia. This can indirectly indicate that AAVE has been mainly active with US funds in the past two months.

From dex, it can be seen that the most active time on DEX is UTC 21:00, followed by 17:00 and 07:00. Converted to Beijing time, the most active time is still 8 am. Of course, we can also clearly see that the transfer-in and transfer-out within the exchange is higher than the overall situation.

From the transfers of dex and cex, it can be clearly seen that funds are more active in exchanges, and they are funds in the US time zone.

4 In-depth portrait of large coin holders

Please note that the large coin holders here are the large coin holders who hold AAVE after excluding the addresses of project parties, dex, cex, mev, dex intermediate wallets, cex intermediate wallets, etc. These large coin holders may include institutions.

The above is the core information of the large coin holders' addresses.

1) ROI. From the perspective of ROI, more than 75% of the large coin holders are in a profitable state, but the profit is not high. The median profit is 20%, and the maximum profit is 137%. However, 26% of the large holders are still in a loss state, with the largest loss of 66%. Combined with the price of AAVE, AAVE's highest point was $668 in the 21-year bull market, and the lowest point was $49. It can be clearly inferred from the profit and loss that most of the chips have been fully changed hands.

2) HoldDay represents the length of time the address holds, with a median of 287 days, about 9 months. This shows that more than half of the large holders bought it just this year. The other half were 24 years ago. Only 25% of the large holders hold it for more than 647 days, that is, more than 1 year. The largest coin holding address is 1342 days.

3) TransactionsPerDay (TPD) refers to the average daily transfer number of the address, which is used to measure the activity of the wallet on the chain, and can be used to judge whether the holder is a long-term or short-term operation. From the data, the median TPD of AAVE's large holders is 0.048 times, that is, the monthly average is 1~2 times, which mainly reflects that the large holders of AAVE rarely make frequent transactions. This is completely different from the current on-chain Chong Tugou and MeMe.

4）From the addressAge, we can find that the median wallet time is 654 days, and more than three-quarters of the wallets have been there for more than 1147 days. This shows that most wallets are not newly generated addresses, but have existed for some time.

On the whole, most of the wallets of AAVE's major holders are wallets that have been in existence for more than September, and the daily transfer volume is not active, and they are not frequent traders. Most of them are in a profitable state, but the overall profit is not high. From the perspective of profit and loss, most of the major holders are not the ones in the 21-year bull market, and most of the chips in the middle have been fully changed hands.

Further study the cost of large holders. The above figure is a relationship diagram between the cost of large holders and the amount of holdings. From the above figure, we can intuitively see

1) The average holding cost of most large holders is concentrated between $85 and $150, especially around $100. The concentration is the highest. This price is also the recent range of fluctuations. We can see that between $85 and $100, there are positions at all levels, with positions of around 6K, and positions of 20k and 35K.

2) There is a group of gaps in the cost range, with prices between 200 and 200. Since April 22, the price of AAVE has been below 200, which means that these large holders have been holding for a long time. It can be seen that the overall chips in this part are relatively small. The largest large holder holds about 20K, and most of them hold less than 10K.

3) There is also a group of holding costs below 70 dollars. According to the current price, the profit has doubled, but the overall proportion is also relatively small.

5 Analysis of large holders who have increased their holdings in the past 60 days

Description: Large holders who have increased their holdings refer to large holders who have made new purchases, and they may overlap with large holders. For example, a certain address is a large holder of the top 100 and has increased its holdings. If this address holds 50K and has purchased 2K in the recent period, only 2K will be used in the analysis here.

5.1 Distribution of Increased Holdings

The above picture shows the increase in holdings by major holders in the past 60 days. The largest increase in holdings is between 0K and 1K, about 140,000 US dollars, with a total of 23 addresses. The second largest increase in holdings is between 1K and 2K, with a total of 15 addresses. The second largest increase in holdings is between 2K and 12K, with different numbers of increase addresses distributed. However, when it comes to more than 14K, it is relatively small, with only one increase in each type.

The largest address increased holdings at around 26K, worth about 4 million US dollars.

5.2 Basic information of increased holdings

1) Analysis of address holding time:
The median of the addressAge column is 281.5 days, which is about 9 months. This shows that more than half of the large holders generated addresses in less than a year. And 25% of the increasers are older than 42 days. Comparing it with large holders, it is found that the age of the address is significantly lower than that of large holders (median is 654 days), which shows that the recent increase in holders is a new batch of buyers.

2) Daily transfer times (TransactionsPerDay, TPD) analysis:
The median of transactionPerDay is 0.0731 times/day, that is, there are about 2 transactions per month. This shows that the large holders of AAVE have a low transaction frequency, do not frequently participate in on-chain activities, and are more likely to hold for the long term. This is very different from some current high-frequency short-term trading investors, and further shows that most holders have adopted a more conservative operation strategy.

3) TokenNum

The number of tokens held by an address can be used to measure the investment style of the address from one perspective. If the number is relatively large, it is often an address that casts a wide net. If the number of tokens is relatively small, it is often an investment habit of buying heavily and bullish on the currency. The median number of coins held by AAVE holders is 4. Since the statistics here include AAVE itself, 50% of the holders hold less than 3 other coins. Among them, 25% of the addresses hold only AAVE. 5.3 Total assets of holders The total assets of the holders' addresses can measure the financial strength of the addresses and, to a certain extent, the potential strength of these holders to continue buying in the future. From the data, there are 26, 10, 8, and 9 addresses with assets between 0~500K, 500K~1M, 1M~1.5M, and 1.5M~2M. This shows that AAVE holders are addresses with relatively large amounts of funds. The largest address is 20.5M.

5.4 Graph of holdings of holders

This chart clearly shows that the largest holding of AAVE holders is AAVE, which is of course a very natural answer. ETH and USDT ranked second and third respectively. Other holdings include ONDO, USDC, UNI, FET, LINK, PENDLE, ETH, stETH, aETHAAVE, and USDT. From the graph, it can be seen that the holders prefer traditional projects rather than the latest hot spots and narratives.