After Helium Mobile went silent: the flywheel turns on again

Foreword

To explore the development potential of Helium Mobile, we need to first To explore the characteristics of Helium Mobile itself. There is no doubt that Helium Mobile is on the list that FutureMoney Group is paying attention to. It has the greatest potential to break the circle and become one of the popular Web3 Mass Adoptions in the real world. Therefore, we are also highly optimistic about the future development path of Helium Mobile. Despite the currency price waterloo, it is currently re-emerging and will even have more influence than Axie and Stepn in the future.

This article will discuss Helium Mobile’s market potential, mining rules, relationship with HNT and token economics.

Market potential and dual narrative empowerment of Solana and DePIN

Helium market potential

According to statistics from JDPower, the monthly cost of telecommunications packages for US users in 2023 will be US$157, and Helium Mobile The price is more advantageous than the $20 package.

In terms of market strategy, Helium Mobile has the flavor of early Uber’s efforts to seize the market by cutting prices and burning money. However, due to the existence of token economics, Helium Mobile will not be allowed to Mobile really carries a heavy cost burden. This is an advantage that telecommunications companies in the real world cannot replicate.

User participation in infrastructure construction and potential token profitability are Mobile's business models that distinguish it from traditional operators. Through effective token reward incentives, and highly competitive phone plan services, in the first few months, Helium 5G network coverage has reached the target that some of the largest CBRS networks in the United States have achieved in years. More than 7,000 small cell radios are deployed in more than 1,200 U.S. cities.

In the flywheel, the number of project users is small and difficulty in starting is a problem encountered by many projects. Helium Mobile ensures the entry of more users and the optimization of user experience through the five-year cooperation agreement signed with T-Mobile, the traditional American telecommunications giant. When Helium Mobile users are in areas without Helium network coverage, they will automatically switch to the T-Mobile network.

The significance of Helium Mobile to end users lies in the package price advantage and the possibility of additional income , and reaching a strategic cooperation with T-Mobile means that Helium Mobile has stable network services, which is conducive to further expansion of the market and guarantee of user service experience.

Helium Mobile’s data growth is rapid

On February 26, 2024, Coinbase launched Mobile, marking Helium Mobile's official entry into the mainstream trading market in the cryptocurrency world. Compared with the historical low of 0.000076, Mobile has achieved the largest increase of 102 times. From the perspective of development speed, Helium Mobile's data growth is relatively rapid. Currently, the number of active 5G nodes is 12,398. Compared with the number of 6,400 nodes in August last year, it has increased by nearly half, reaching almost 1,000 nodes per month. The speed is increasing.

Judging from the actual number of users, as of January 5 this year, the number of Helium Mobile users has exceeded 30,000. As of February 27, Helium Mobile’s number of new subscribers in a single day was 1,444. Based on this increase, the current number of users is estimated to be more than 50,000.

If calculated on an annual basis, it means that Helium Mobile will have nearly 530,000 new subscribers throughout the year. This has caught up with Verizon + AT&T's 545,000 new users in 2023.

Helium Mobile's rapid expansion in the number of users comes from the low price of its $20 telecom package.

On January 25, Telefónica (TEF), one of the telecommunications service giants, cooperated with Helium Mobile to enter Mexico, a country with a population of 126.7 million.

Compared to Mexico's per capita monthly income of US$327, the local traditional telecommunications package costs US$275M and US$99.99; Helium Mobile's US$20 package fee can easily open up the market.

Solana+DePIN dual narrative empowerment

Another What deserves attention is that Solana and DePIN are becoming the two fulcrums for Helium Mobile's re-emergence.

On April 20, 2023, Helium completed the migration to the Solana network and became the head of the Solana ecological DePIN track. At the same time, Solana’s own high-performance public chain also provides fertile ground for Helium Mobile.

Helium Mobile is linking with the Solana ecosystem in its own way.

At the Solana Breakpoint conference in October 2023, Helium Mobile was repeatedly mentioned as a case. At the same time, in November 2023, Nova Labs announced that it would provide SIM cards and free trial services to Saga mobile phone users (approximately 50,000 people).

The DePIN concept, after the Bitcoin ETF is passed and the cryptocurrency paradigm is accepted by the mainstream, will serve as an important starting point for the expansion of the Web3 field as it develops and expands. Represents the combination of token economics and real entities.

Helium Mobile starts from the mobile phone and communication terminals that are most indispensable for human beings in the real world, and will be smoother in terms of user acceptance and popularity in real society.

Helium Mobile adjusts mining rules

Helium Mobile network Composed of four roles:

Hardware supplier: produces and sells 5G hotspot equipment

Hotspot operators (miners): Miners purchase hotspot equipment, contribute to network coverage and receive token rewards.

Operator Nova Labs: For end users, it provides a 5G package of US$20 per month.

Users: Purchase 5G package services through tokens or credit cards, and obtain token rewards by providing map data.

A simple understanding is that Helium Mobile provides users with two forms of mining around hardware and telecom packages: hardware holders obtain token rewards by deploying Hotspot and providing hotspot services for nearby users; telecom package buyers obtain token rewards by using Packages and shared positioning to earn rewards.

Strictly speaking, we can indeed classify MOBILE as a mining currency, and apply the development path of classic mining currencies such as BTC, ETH, and FIL: MOBILE tokens have risen, demand for hardware packages has increased, and the official has obtained more market-making funds to continue to increase the currency price.

Theoretically, mining tokens will have a problem that is difficult to solve: increased demand for mining machines also means increased selling pressure on tokens. , market value management cannot always cover the market's selling sentiment; on the other hand, hardware is prone to empty runs in actual deployment environments (a large number of Hotspot devices are concentrated in mining farms, or a user holds a large number of 20 US dollar packages, which cannot Really radiate to more users).

Such a result will eventually lead to a serious imbalance in the supply and demand relationship of tokens, and eventually the price will collapse.

Helium Mobile has made two responsive adjustments:

1.Hotspot determines mining rewards based on usage, which means that only real users who link to hotspots will be rewarded;

2. Traffic package mining rules Update: New subscribers will have to wait 8 days to receive rewards and intermittent location queries (must move more than 200 feet before the phone sends location information to Helium), allowing users who actually provide information to receive rewards. And each account can only receive one Mapping reward at a time. The number of multiple mobile phones under the same account will not increase the reward amount.

Currently, users participating in Mapping can earn more than 2,000 MOBILE tokens every day, and users only need to pay Helium Mobile's monthly package fee of US$20 to get started. Mining. Based on the current price, users can cover the $20 subscription fee within 2 days.

This adjustment to the mining rules shows the role of the rules in regulating market enthusiasm and expectations. The most direct impact is that the price of its token MOBILE peaked and fell after the rule update. Nonetheless, based on MOBILE’s current price of $0.0037, users can cover the $20 subscription fee in just 3 days.

MOBILE and HNT leverage each other

Helium Mobile is Helium's SubDAO token, as part of the Helium LoraWAN long-distance wireless technology ecosystem, together with Helium IOT (low-cost, wide-coverage IOT network) and 1633 (large enterprise IoT network solution), builds Helium's wireless communication "empire". As sub-coins, IOT and MOBILE also have a close value relationship with HNT.

Among these three ecological scenarios, Helium Mobile has the best development momentum. Comparing the economic models of Helium Mobile and Helium, we can find that the value support ofMOBILE tokens is inseparable from HNT.

HNT adopts BME (destruction & casting equivalent) method to form the HNT deflation mechanism. In terms of total distribution, in addition to about 33% going to investors, another 33% will be distributed to hotspot operators and miners that provide network coverage, and 33% will be used to pay network data transmission fees. As a downstream of HNT token distribution, MOBILE has to send 6% of the token economics to VeHNT, which is almost inevitably affected by the supply and demand of HNT tokens.

That is, the ratio of the total number of HNT in the pool to the total number of MOBILE. The increase in the price of HNT will also push up the price of MOBILE.

When we understand the factors affecting MOBILE’s price, in addition to the comparison between mining selling pressure and MOBILE token demand, we should also fully consider the HNT ecology The impact of the overall development trend on MOBILE tokens.

MOBILE price spiral will be affected by three dimensions:

1. Miners dig out new coins, creating selling pressure;

2. Package users continue to grow and use MOBILE tokens to pay for the $20 package fee. According to data released by JDPower in 2023, American users will spend an average of US$157 per month on telecom packages in 2023, and the US$20 package has a considerable price advantage. The growth of package services will increase the demand for MOBILE tokens, and will also drive up the price of HNT;

3. The rise in HNT prices will drive up the price of MOBILE, increasing the Rewards for mobile ecological miners and mappers encourage more participants to flock in. This will further intensify the burning intensity of HNT, push up the price of HNT, and affect the price of MOBILE. The flywheel is moving forward.

Generally speaking, when the entire DePIN sector is optimistic, the Helium matrix develops healthily, the increase in the price of HNT itself, and the increase in the number of Helium Mobile package users have an impact on the price of HNT The positive impact will offset or even far exceed the selling pressure brought by miners. Then the MOBILE token price will be supported. The shorter payback period for miners has led to an increase in the scale of hotspot networks, more complete network services, and improved cost-effectiveness for end users, further leading to user growth.

Token Economics: Overall Deflation

MOBILE is The protocol token of Helium Mobile is also the governance token of Helium SubDAO. MOBILE token supply:

1. The maximum supply of MOBILE is 230 billion, and the current circulation is 84.4 billion.

2. 50 billion MOBILE will be pre-mined at the launch of Mobile Network and distributed to the network operating fund managed by the Helium Foundation. A portion of this allocation has been allocated to Mobile Network hotspots throughout Genesis.

3. The first year of MOBILE will start on August 1, 2022, and the first token will be minted on August 12, 2022. Halved every two years.

MOBILE’s emission plan was proposed in HIP53. Starting from February 1, 2023, 5G hotspot owners will receive 6.6B MOBILE every month Tokens that incentivize subscribers to sign up, share data, or demonstrate various other types of valuable behavior to promote network growth. Rewards will more than double compared to the genesis period, but the PoC algorithm remains unchanged. Subsequently, it was updated through HIP-75, confirmed by HIP-77, and the emission plan was officially updated in HIP-79 on March 19, 2023.

Under the new emission plan, the maximum supply of the token will be 230B MOBILE. The updated emission plan will continue to issue approximately 3 billion MOBILE tokens to 5G hotspot owners every month until the next halving.

HIP-79 proposal latest allocation plan:

20% allocated to PoC;

40% is allocated to hotspot data transmission, and the unallocated attributable PoC rewards;

20% is allocated to map data sharers, The proportion is increased from the previous 10% to 20%;

10% is given to the operator (Nova Labs);

4% is given to the oracle, which will be allocated after the external oracle operator deploys the service;

6% is given to VeHNT.

Helium Mobile big event

1. 2022 July In March, Helium launched MOBILE tokens as rewards for 5G hotspots to expand Helium 5G coverage.

2. In August 2022, Nova Labs announced its own encryption operator Helium Mobile.

3. After Helium Mobile launched a pilot data package of $5 for unlimited calls, text messages, and mobile data in Miami in August 2023, the MOBILE price started to rise.

4. In November 2023, Nova Labs introduced Solana Labs’ new Saga phone (the Saga phone is Solana’s flagship Android device, with the Solana blockchain Tightly integrated) SIM card and free trial service provided to users. Under the agreement, Saga phones sold in the United States will receive a free 30-day Helium Mobile subscription.

5. In December 2023, Helium Mobile officially stated that it had launched an unlimited phone package of US$20 per month in the United States, covering data, text messages and call services. .

6. In January 2024, Spanish telecommunications giant Telefónica announced that it would cooperate with Helium developer Nova Labs to deploy Helium Mobile hotspots in Mexico City and Oaxaca.

7. On February 26, 2024, Coinbase launched Helium Mobile.

Conclusion: Helium Mobile is on the eve of an outbreak

2023 At the end of the year, Helium Mobile, which had been dormant for a year and a half, experienced a surge after launching a $20 unlimited phone plan. And because of the modification of mining rules, the currency price rose to a high of 0.00777 and then fell sharply, causing dissatisfaction in the market.

But as an infrastructure network that incentivizes retail users through token rewards, Helium Mobile has explored a highly imaginative business model that can break through the infrastructure The difficulties of heavy capital investment and long return cycle can also give ordinary users the opportunity to participate in industry innovation and gain benefits.

Helium Mobile builds a decentralized 5G network by providing token incentives for hotspots, and at the same time acquires end users through communication packages that are far lower than the market price. The incentive mechanism This creates a flywheel effect between miners, tokens, and users, promoting triple growth in network scale, user scale, and token prices.

The current FDV of Helium is about US$2.1 billion; the FDV of Helium Mobile is only US$900 million, and the circulating market value is only US$300 million. During the same period, Helium Mobile users were in 3 -Around 50,000. If you inflate this number 10 times, when Helium Mobile really has 500,000 users, its market value may be multiplied by 10-20 on the current basis.

In this bull market where DePIN is an important narrative, Helium Mobile breaks through the circle as it has strong traditional resources and low participation threshold ($20) It is a project with a high possibility, the token has a halving mechanism, overall deflation, and the currency price - miners - users support each other. In our opinion, this will be a DePIN project with Mass Adoption potential that has a high chance of detonating in the bull market.