After returning from the United States, I talked about the impact of the election on the Web3 industry

I just returned to Australia after a trip to the United States. Before I set off, I was fully confident that I would be able to write a few short essays with unique viewpoints and profound thoughts to explain the current situation and trends of crypto in the United States. As a result, when I really picked up the pen, it seemed that many images floated in front of my eyes, but my mind felt empty. Over the past two years, I have traveled to many places from the perspective of crypto, but no place is as difficult to write as the United States. This country is so large, so rich, and so important that it gives me a kind of psychological pressure, that is, for any point of view, before I put it into writing, a bunch of faces and materials will emerge in my mind to refute it. With such entanglement, it is difficult to form any text. In this case, if a person is demanding of himself, he will never use his own confusion to make others clear, or force output to mislead others. But I don't set high standards for myself, and I'm thick-skinned. I'm not ashamed even if I mislead others, but proud of it. So I decided to write something anyway, like a blind man touching an elephant, not seeking correct opinions, not afraid of being scolded, just talking about the facts I saw and heard and some simple ideas.

Where to start? This one-month trip to the United States happened to take place before the 2024 US election. Almost everyone I met talked to me about this topic, and I heard a lot of novel opinions. In this case, I will write an article first to talk about my observations on the US election from the perspective of the Web3 industry.

Crypto? A small matter

If there is any widespread consensus about this election, it is that many people realize that this is an extremely important election in the history of the United States and even the world, and it is likely to affect the direction of history in the next few decades. Before I came to the United States, from the perspective of the Web3/crypto industry, I was most concerned about the impact of this election on this industry. But when I really arrived in the United States, I made a cup of coffee and called a friend who lives in the United States. He analyzed the far-reaching impact of this election from various aspects such as economy, politics, immigration, social security, Sino-US relations, and the Russian-Ukrainian war. Even I gradually felt that compared with these major topics, crypto is actually a small matter. Even if we are most related to the interests of this industry, we should not ignore those bigger topics. Therefore, let me start with a few big topics. Of course, my output is definitely one-sided, but I just tell the truth and am not responsible for objectivity and fairness.

Public security is not an embarrassing thing, the economy is a big problem

During my time in the United States, I only visited two states, California and Washington, both of which are deep blue states politically. I exchanged views on the election, AI and Web3 topics with more than a dozen people, most of whom were Chinese, but there were also two white people and one Indian. I must admit that my English is still quite difficult to discuss these topics. The depth of communication in English is much worse than that in Chinese, so the most inspiring and interesting opinions for me are mainly from Chinese friends.

The most interesting opinion I heard was a friend who defined this election as a choice between Trump's second term and Obama's third term. During my time in the United States, Trump and Kamala Harris happened to have the only TV debate. It is generally believed that Kamala Harris won this debate. But according to this friend's recollection, in the 2019 Democratic Party primary election, Kamala Harris performed very poorly in the multi-person TV debate and was beaten by her opponents in the party. With her own ability, she couldn't even pass the party primary. The opportunity she has today is entirely due to Obama's promotion and recommendation. Even her extraordinary performance in this TV debate is certainly inseparable from the pixel-level support and training of the Obama team behind her. In other words, judging from Kamala Harris's resume and ability, her source of power is Obama. In the officialdom, people should be responsible for the source of their power, so if she is elected, she will definitely follow Obama's lead and fully implement Obama's will in her administration. So it is better to say that it is a Trump-Obama race than a Trump-Hernami race.

This also directly led to some people denying Kamala Harris. Because the US election has a mature system, candidates start from the party primaries, and then publicly accept the screening of party members in rounds. The final winner accepts the party nomination and competes for the presidential election. Kamala Harris was first the vice president and now the presidential candidate. She did not go through the test of the party primaries, but was promoted by Obama behind the scenes. Some friends sighed, how come the American Democratic Party with thick eyebrows and big eyes is now starting to engage in small circle court politics? I have to say that I had never thought of this before, and after listening to my friends' words, I also felt a little strange.

So how will people choose between Trump and Obama? This depends on personal opinion. Some people think Obama is not bad, quite decent. This friend, and another Chinese American friend I met, are quite fierce. They think that Biden, as a representative of Hillary's faction, embodies the proposition of the Democratic establishment, and has generally scored positive in the past four years. But choosing Obama as president in 2008 and letting him serve for eight years is the biggest mistake the American people have made in history. As for why they said that, they didn't tell me in detail, just saying that Obama's harm to the United States is deep-rooted. The gnashing of teeth reminded me of the words that Prince Gong Yizhen said before he died, holding the hand of Emperor Guangxu: "It is difficult to make such a big mistake with all the iron in the nine provinces."

However, this can be regarded as an extreme opinion. Others think that Biden/Harris has done a much better job than Trump in actively promoting US investment in high-tech industries, rationally controlling Sino-US competition, and repairing relations with allies. In particular, the new Cold War-style competition between China and the United States is the core event in international affairs today and in the next 20-30 years. It has a profound impact on everyone in the world, especially for Chinese people. In my opinion, the work done by the Biden administration on Sino-US relations should be recognized by most people. Of course, I have heard people on social media criticize Biden for being too weak on China, but I have never seen this view in the real world, especially among Chinese friends in the United States.

When it comes to domestic affairs, my feeling is that everyone is generally dissatisfied with the Democratic Party’s governance in the past four years. The main points of criticism are concentrated on the economy, illegal immigration and social security. Among them, illegal immigration and the related homeless, drugs and social security issues are what they complain about most. Of course, it is also a hot topic about the "ugly country" on the simplified Chinese Internet. "Free America, shooting every day" has long become a golden sentence in the domestic network comment area.

But I have to be honest. I don’t have much say in illegal immigration and social security issues because I haven’t encountered anything. Of course, when homeless people gather near Little Saigon in Seattle, it does look like a street party for ragged people, but when I walked through them with my bags, they ignored a rough bald Asian man and ignored him. There were no threatening words or body movements. As for a person who was camping on the streets of Westwood in Los Angeles, he kindly taught me how to pay parking fees. However, I should also point out that his teaching level was really poor, causing me to receive the only parking ticket on this trip. What really touched me about the homeless problem was a black woman I met on the San Francisco airport train. She was fat, dirty, and had ulcers on her exposed calves, which were purple, pus and blood were oozing from her heels, and she exuded an indescribable stench. This stench was not even smelled on Chinese migrant workers in the 1980s and 1990s, and it was enough to form a fatal chemical attack on "decent people." I knew at a glance that this woman had severe diabetes. If she didn't get effective treatment, she would have to have her limb amputated within a few months to save her life. From the tip of the iceberg, we can see that the homeless problem in San Francisco must be very serious. I'm sure the rumors about fentanyl zombies, car smashing, and shootings are not groundless, but I didn't see any of them.

What I have personally experienced is the soaring prices. The last time I came to California was in 2018. This time, I saw that the prices have risen so much compared to that year that I can't recognize them. From restaurants to hotels, from car rentals to gasoline, from price tags to tipping options, every price tag reminds you that this is a crime scene of massive inflation.

In fact, for my generation who experienced China's economic boom, rising prices are not unfamiliar. In the early 1990s when I was in high school, hot dry noodles near Hubu Lane on Zhonghua Road in Wuchang cost 18 cents for 2 liang. I would eat 4 liang for a meal, which cost 36 cents, and I could enjoy one of the ultimate happiness that a teenager could get at that time. Now the same amount of hot dry noodles costs 5-6 yuan, which has increased more than ten times. However, this increase has occurred little by little over a few decades, and is accompanied by a greater increase in people's income, so apart from complaining that the taste of hot dry noodles is not as good as it used to be, no one has much opinion on the price.

But the United States is different. The price level in the United States has suddenly soared in the past three or four years after a long period of stability. I remember that Professor Zhiwu Chen of Yale University once used his personal experience to introduce the stability of prices in the United States in the past. He said that when he went to Yale to study in 1986, a bowl of beef noodles next to the school cost 5 US dollars. In the early 2010s, when he became a professor, he returned to the restaurant and found that the bowl of beef noodles was still $5, which made him feel deeply moved. It can be seen that the United States had maintained low inflation for decades. I didn't go to New Haven this time, so I don't know how much the bowl of beef noodles costs now. However, in the Bay Area, meals that cost less than $10 in 2018 are now generally more than $17 to $20. If you treat people to a special restaurant, please note that it is just a restaurant, not fine dining, you can easily spend $100 per person including tips.

Hotel prices have also skyrocketed. In China, you can stay in a five-star hotel for the price, but here you are just squeezed into a motel room, which reminds you of the scene in the movie "No Country for Old Men" where the mushroom-headed man carries a high-pressure gas tank and a silencer to chase Thanos. In addition, some hotels charge you an additional $30-40 parking fee per day on the grounds of valet parking. AirBnb, in its classic BP when it raised funds, clearly stated that the average nightly room rate was $70. Now, this average price has to be multiplied by three. Anyway, it can be summed up in one word: expensive. To be fair, we cannot simply complain about hotel prices, because Australian hotel prices are also expensive. But a friend in Seattle told me that hotel prices have suddenly doubled in the past three or four years.

Other tourist expenses: car rental, a car that could be rented for $35 a day in 2008 now costs $65-80. 87 regular gasoline, $4-5 a gallon, about 7.50-9.20 RMB a liter, I don’t know how it compares with China, but it is more expensive than Australia. In general, if I were to make a blind test, as a tourist, the travel expenses in the United States may be 50-80% more expensive than six years ago.

The situation of residents will definitely be better, and the things in the supermarket will definitely not increase that much. But the food prices I saw in Trader Joe’s, a very good local food supermarket, are also higher than those in Australia Woolworth/Coles, about 10-30% higher. I checked and found that from 2018 to 2024, the per capita GDP of the United States increased by 36%. But I believe that a large part of this increase was eaten up by inflation. A famous Chinese economist said that in 2024, China's GDP calculated based on purchasing power parity will be 1.3 times that of the United States. Although some people say that his main business is swimming and talking tough, and his economic views are not very reliable, I think that in this case, it is probably not far from the truth.

Everyone has read about the "depreciation" of the US dollar in China in the media, but it is difficult to realize how serious the problem is without experiencing it personally. The American friends I have contacted also feel the pain of this matter. Therefore, this is definitely the biggest economic failure of the Democratic Party in its four years in power.

But some friends believe that Trump is the initiator of the great inflation. The trade war with China, the poor control of the epidemic, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to release money crazily, these are what happened during the tenure of King Trump, and these are the root causes of this round of US inflation. How can Biden be blamed? I am powerless to analyze this debate.

If there is still some controversy about whether Trump or Biden should bear the responsibility for inflation, then the most profound and powerful criticism of the Democratic Party’s economic policy that I have heard is about tax reform.

A friend of mine who started a business in the crypto industry, R (his name is hidden without his permission), gave me a detailed interpretation of the Democratic Party’s series of "extreme left" reforms in corporate income tax and capital gains tax since the Obama era, which made me shudder and sweat. In short, during the Biden administration, the United States revised the deferral system of corporate income tax, and is now considering taxing unrealized capital gains on stocks. According to my friend's explanation, the reform of these two systems will severely hit the enthusiasm of startups and their employees, have a squeezing effect on employment in the high-tech industry, and undermine the enthusiasm of American stockholders for long-term investment, encourage speculation, and even severely suppress the valuation level of the US stock market. Tax issues are very complex and professional issues. I don't have the ability to describe them accurately, but if his analysis is correct, then even as a layman, I think these tax reform measures are fundamental to the US economic system. I feel that people who don't have a deep hatred with the United States can't do such a thing.

However, I feel that I still have some doubts about this without serious research. Can these people really do this? So on this topic, I still need to learn more and understand more, and I dare not easily draw conclusions.

There are many other problems, such as undermining the rule of law with political correctness, misalignment of the social welfare system, manipulation of the media, waste of public budgets, official corruption, etc. Many of these problems are deeper. In short, after listening to it, I feel that the Democratic Party has accumulated a lot of contradictions in the past few years of its rule. Even in deep blue states, you can hear so many complaints. But unfortunately, I only visited the United States for a short time and was unable to form my own views on these issues, so I won't expand on them.

Of course, after reading the above description, people may have the impression that the US economy is very bad and the people are very dissatisfied. Therefore, I must correct it. This is not the case. The US economy is currently developing strongly and thriving, presenting a scene of vigorous vitality and competition. If you compare the United States with Australia, the US economy is obviously on the rise, and Americans are obviously more motivated. However, as the most mature large-scale mass democratic practice in the world, the US election, driven by various campaign organizations and media mechanisms, has fully mobilized the enthusiasm of the public to participate in politics, so the problems accumulated in the past few years have been put on the table for discussion, creating an atmosphere that the United States has reached a crossroads of life and death, which highlights the seriousness of these problems. If this year is not an election year, I am afraid that no one will talk to me about these problems.

Trump, a generation of mediocrity

Even in deep blue states, among the friends I communicated with this time, the number of people who support Trump is an absolute majority, and those who support Kamala Harris are a minority. But I found that in fact, everyone is not satisfied with both of them, just choosing the less bad one among the two options. Therefore, the disagreement between them is mainly about "who is worse".

When I mentioned this discovery to a friend, I added that it would be great if there was a Reagan at this time. When he heard this, his eyes briefly flashed. People of our age can understand this emotion.

Now the whole world has entered an era of mediocrity. What kind of foundation will this group of mediocrity lay for the future world? I dare not think about it, it is hard to say.

Among this generation of leaders, Trump is definitely not the most "mediocre", but the word "mediocre" is also reflected in him more concretely.

Among the friends I met, even those who support Trump have criticized his many shortcomings without hesitation, such as his reckless words, lack of respect for others, love of boasting, and not looking like a monarch. However, these are just minor details. The main issue that everyone criticized was his attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian war.

I believe that Trump's current appeasement attitude towards Russia represents the public opinion of some Americans with isolationist tendencies. But to be honest, I have not met such a person. Only one Indian friend gave a hypothesis about this matter, that is, Trump probably wanted to quickly stop the war and win over Russia to concentrate its forces on dealing with China. But even this Indian guy himself said that if this is really the case, Trump is too wishful thinking. Putin had a famous saying in the previous Sino-US trade war: "sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight." If he gets out of the quagmire of Ukraine, will he throw himself into the arms of the United States?

Let's not speculate on Trump's logic on this issue. His communication with the outside world is really too poor.

So this leads to another widely questioned question about Trump, which is whether he is too old.

Many people believe that Trump has a good hand in this election, but his moves are bad. Not to mention the once-in-a-lifetime highlights of dodging bullets with his head tilted and waving the national flag with his arms spread, even the issue of domestic inflation, if he just holds on to it and pursues it relentlessly, it will be enough to win the election. But for some reason, Trump seems to have lost his previous sharp street smart in this election, especially in the debate, where he repeatedly released koi at the decisive points, and instead made a fuss about some random topics, which is really incomprehensible. Back to the Russia-Ukraine issue, as long as he talks about strategy and reads "The Forerunner of History", he can get high marks on this issue. But he just doesn't do it, which really lacks oriental wisdom. Even if you insist on telling the truth, can you explain your logic? He keeps boasting about how he can achieve peace on the first day of his presidency and that he is friends with Putin. What impression does he give people? Isn't he just Chamberlain with a gray beard and Truman with a white head? So many people wonder if he has also been surrounded by the information cocoon he created, losing his sense of reality and his strategic flexibility?

But no matter what, among the people I have contacted, the majority still support Trump, not because these people like Trump so much, nor because they dislike Kamala Harris so much, but because they sincerely believe that if the Democratic Party continues to govern, some of the underlying institutional structures in the United States may be destroyed. Let me put it this way, someone told me that the logic of the Democratic Party's canvassing for votes is that although you don't know Kamala Harris, you hate Trump, so please vote for me. But after communicating with all the Trump supporters this time, I found that their logic is just the opposite: I may not like Trump very much, and I don’t know much about Kamala Harris, but I know too well what kind of person Obama is, so I must vote for Trump.

In short, the US election is really too complicated. I think if I had a ballot, after listening to so much information, I might be hesitant now. Fortunately, I don’t have this ballot, so I don’t have to worry about it.

Crypto topics enter the election: a breakthrough from zero to one

Finally, I can return to the topic of Web3/crypto, which I am more confident about. In fact, I wrote so much before just to give Web3 colleagues a background, so that everyone can understand that compared with the big topics mentioned above, Web3/crypto is a small matter and will not have any decisive impact on this election.

However, although it is small, it is also a breakthrough from zero to one. After all, crypto has become a topic of this election, which is the first time in the history of the US election. I hope everyone will not ignore the significance of this matter. I believe that with the development of the industry, in a few years, every US presidential candidate must propose a crypto strategy to win over voters.

Currently, both candidates have expressed their views on crypto, among which Trump's statement is very positive. Not only did he participate in the Bitcoin Conference to support BTC and use BTC to buy hamburgers for diners, but he also criticized the SEC's attitude towards crypto and declared that he would replace the chairman with someone who is friendly to crypto. Kamala Harris only mentioned digital assets and blockchain in a few recent speeches. It is difficult to judge whether it is a well-thought-out policy oath or a perfunctory speech to attract votes. Based on these superficial phenomena, if Trump wins the election, he should adopt a more crypto-friendly policy. Not only will the crypto market be more likely to usher in a bull market, but the development of the Web3 industry may also accelerate. If Kamala Harris is elected, the development of the crypto market and the Web3 industry will definitely be slower, but there will also be development.

Of course, people will question whether these statements of the two candidates will be implemented or "fooling"? I think that Trump should have formed a firm opinion on crypto, and if elected, he will intend to implement a series of his policy proposals. Kamala Harris, that is, the Obama team, has not actually figured it out, so there is more flexibility. If Kamala Harris comes to power, there are all kinds of possibilities. If Trump comes to power, the certainty is relatively high.

Why do you think so? Precisely because crypto is a small topic and will not have a decisive impact on the election results, the two candidates are not willing to fool around on this issue to win votes, so their statements are more credible. Especially Trump, he is too lazy to say nice words on the Russia-Ukraine issue, let alone be hypocritical on the crypto issue. On the other hand, the statements of the two are actually in line with the value propositions of their respective parties. The Republican Party itself emphasizes personal freedom, which is more compatible with the value system of crypto. The Democratic Party is a disciplined organization, and its values ​​advocate the expansion of government power and strengthening of regulation, which has some friction with crypto. But the Biden/Harris government is indeed more attentive to supporting the development of high-tech industries. So if Web3 proves itself to be a high-tech industry direction with strategic value in the next few years, Harris also hopes that the current caliber will reserve enough flexibility.

In such a situation, how do we judge the impact of the election on the crypto industry and market? My opinion is that no matter what the election results are, BTC will usher in greater development. This matter is less affected by the election results and has a higher degree of certainty. However, for other Web3 tracks other than BTC, whether they are bulls or bears, big bulls or small bulls, the impact of the election results will be more dramatic.

BTCFi: The Blue Ocean is Coming

BTC is currently the largest consensus common denominator between the crypto industry, Wall Street and the SEC, which will send BTC into a relatively stable cycle. In this cycle, BTCFi will usher in great development. Even if the industry environment deteriorates, BTC as digital gold can survive on its own.

The logic of BTCFi is this: Wall Street regards BTC as a commodity in order to accommodate BTC in the asset framework they are familiar with. After this work is completed, BTC assets interact with funds from Wall Street institutions. Compared with the previous support from the currency circle, BTC has gained support from another dimension, just like a table with an extra leg, the stability will be greatly improved. But don't forget that BTC is a programmable digital asset. Previously, the relationship between BTC and DeFi was relatively weak, and BTCFi did not develop much. People did not explore the programmability of BTC enough, and they did not know enough about it. Wall Street looked at the dull BTC and thought that it was no different from gold, wheat, and crude oil, so they put it in the commodities. But BTC is not gold, wheat, or crude oil after all, but a programmable digital asset. Now that Wall Street has made BTC right, and the Trojan horse has entered the city, it is time for the crypto industry to play the advantages of BTC's programmability. Based on BTC, through programming, we can realize a series of financial businesses such as reserves, pledges, loans, transactions, and derivatives on the chain, creating a prosperous BTCFi.

The essence of BTCFi is to leverage on the basis of BTC. Various different businesses are all different forms of leverage. The programmability of BTC facilitates the development of these levers, and the openness and transparency of the blockchain also greatly reduce its trust friction. This is the core advantage of BTCFi. When leverage is added, the biggest fear is that the foundation is not solid and the ground is shaken. The participation of Wall Street has consolidated this foundation, so the leverage of BTCFi has become very imaginative. In time, the value of BTCFi and BTC will show a multiplier relationship, that is, several times the total value of BTC itself. This situation has appeared in other major asset classes, and it is only a matter of time for BTC.

Of course, this requires a long period of incubation of a benign external environment. If Trump comes to power, such an external environment may appear earlier. On the one hand, Wall Street itself is bound to make some derivatives around BTC and provide more abundant tools to consolidate the foundation of BTC. On the other hand, in the crypto industry, the construction of BTCFi will be based on builders, give full play to programmability, and will definitely produce a series of innovations. Compared with other DeFi branches, BTCFi is easier to gather consensus and gain orthodoxy, with a more solid foundation, and its development is certain. When Trump takes office and governs for four years, BTCFi will take shape. If Kamala Harris takes office, this thing will develop more slowly, but it will definitely happen.

What is the worst case scenario? It is what Trump threatens, world war and chaos. In this case, the development of Web3 may need to grope in the dark for a longer time, but only BTC, as digital gold, will highlight its value. And BTCFi, as BTC's decentralized reserve, transaction, and lending infrastructure, will obviously be more vital than the centralized system in the situation of chaos.

Of course, I really don't think that a world war will happen soon, so we still plan the development of BTCFi according to the optimistic branch.

The famous marketing expert Geoffrey Moore has a very famous "chasm" model, which means that for a new technology, there is a deep chasm between early supporters and the mass market, and most technologies and products cannot cross this chasm. I think if Trump comes to power, the BTC ecosystem will cross this chasm in the next four years. If Kamala Harris comes to power, it may take longer, but it will definitely cross it. According to general rules, once a technology product crosses this chasm, the total scale will reach more than ten times the previous one. As far as BTC is concerned, part of this scale of growth will come from the appreciation of BTC itself, but mainly from the development of BTCFi.

By the way, the above analysis is also the basis for judging Solv's long-term development strategy. Solv is now the largest TVL protocol in BTCFi, but we think this is just the beginning. Solv has made many infrastructure-level innovations for BTCFi. If you just think of it as a reserve protocol, it is hard to understand why we do these things. But in fact, Solv believes that BTCFi is about to usher in a big development, so it prepares these infrastructures in advance, which is also a typical blue ocean strategic thinking. So from a selfish point of view, I still hope that the king of understanding will enter the palace again.

Web3 needs orderly colonization

Web3’s biggest task now is to create large-scale application products with a large number of users and practical application value. A large number of users is easy to understand, but what does practical application value mean? It means having real consumption scenarios and income models. In other words, users pay not to invest and make more money, but to pay for enjoyment, happiness, and satisfaction. It can be said that as long as this level is broken through, in conjunction with the improvement of the external environment, Web3 will be able to usher in a real outbreak.

So what is the current situation of Web3 development? It is a situation where one leg is long and the other leg is short. The long leg is technology, and the short leg is industry order.

I have repeatedly told my friends around me that you should not look at Web3 technology with old eyes. Many people were deceived by the ICO scams in 2017-2018, which said "the bolder the people, the more productive the land". The impression was so deep that their understanding of Web3 has always remained in the "air ICO project" period. Even those who know that Web3 has applications have a bad impression of its technical maturity and user experience. Yes, just two or three years ago, the main DAPPs were still low in performance, high in cost, and poor in user experience, exuding a geeky flavor. But in just these two or three years, Web3 technology has made great progress in almost all key branches. Some of the technical verification products I have seen recently have user experiences that are infinitely close to Web2. Therefore, I think the main contradiction of the entire Web3 has now transformed into the contradiction between the ever-changing Web3 technology development and the seriously lagging product and application ecology.

Many people are struggling to figure out why there are no large-scale application products in Web3? People have found many reasons, analyzed and analyzed, trying to summarize which products are suitable for Web3 and which are not. But I think the core reason is not the product itself, but the corruption of the industry order.

Although Web3 technology has made great progress, developing technology into a successful product requires a whole set of industry orders such as investment, incubation, R&D, operation, promotion, marketing, supervision, and market. The most core of these is the order of the listing link. We say that Silicon Valley is the global innovation center, not because the talents there are really supernatural, but because Silicon Valley has established a set of orders that are most conducive to rewarding innovation, and has linked up with the SEC and Wall Street to provide innovators with a full set of order support from cradle to listing. This set of order was once exported to China, which led to the glorious 20 years of China's Internet. So order is crucial and decisive.

When Bitcoin and Ethereum were successful, many of us thought that blockchain brought a new order that was freer, more open, more equal, and more transparent. But sowing dragon seeds, harvesting fleas. After seven or eight years of practice, the crypto industry has not only failed to breed a new order that surpasses Silicon Valley, but has established a more distorted, ugly, and fraudulent order that reverses right and wrong. After Token 2049 in Singapore this year, many participants published summary essays. If you read these essays with the perspective of order summary, it is not difficult to get a glimpse of the leopard and understand how bad and desperate the real order of the crypto industry is now. This bad industry order is the real reason that hinders the development of Web3.

Order is a product, and it is the most important and expensive product. Some countries and regions have not been able to establish a healthy order for thousands of years, and have always been struggling in the quagmire of history. Similarly, what worries me most about the Web3 industry is that it cannot evolve a healthy order by itself. At least for now, I don’t see hope.

The realistic solution to this problem is to open your arms, introduce external builders, welcome order colonization, quickly cleanse the existing five turbidities and evil world, and establish a new set of rules. The closest thing I have seen to this goal is the "Token Safe Harbor" plan proposed by the US SEC. This plan allows crypto projects to enter a three-year safe harbor, raise funds and incentives through the issuance of tokens, and not be pursued under securities law for the time being. But after three years, the project must meet a series of conditions before it can leave the safe harbor and enter a normal operating cycle. If the projects in the safe haven are suspected of fraud, the responsible persons will be severely punished by law. I think it should not be difficult for people who understand the crypto market to see that such a plan has grasped the key and laid the foundation for the emergence of a new order.

It is in this sense that we can grasp the key by examining the impact of the US election on Web3. If it is said that BTCFi will develop well regardless of whether Trump or Kamala Harris comes to power, then for the future of Web3, the difference between Trump and Kamala Harris is huge. If Trump fulfills his promise and replaces a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, then we may see suggestions like "Token Safe Haven" implemented in a short time, and a new and benign industry order will be slowly established, inspiring countless Web3 innovative products. If Kamala Harris comes to power, whether the SEC changes people or not, it is likely to continue to pursue today's policy, that is, based on the dogma of the old order, to push crypto out without compromise and flexibility, or to whip this new field. If this is the case, then I think the establishment of the new Web3 order will probably take a long time to grope in the dark.

Therefore, most crypto comrades hope that Trump will win the election, probably purely out of expectations for currency prices and liquidity. But I pay more attention to whether Trump can really push the SEC to change its attitude towards crypto once he is elected, which is the key to whether Web3 can take off quickly.