Analysts predict that BNB will reach $1986 in 2025. Too exaggerated

At the end of 2024, the crypto asset market is still hot: the well-known NFT IP Pudgy Penguins issued the token PENGU, the stablecoin protocol Usual (USUAL) collateralized by real world assets (RWA) has reignited the market's discussion on decentralized stablecoins, and the biological DAO network BIO Protocol distributed tokens BIO, which triggered the rise of the DeSci (decentralized science) concept board...

If you pay enough attention, it is not difficult to find that these hot assets in the market are inseparable from Binance: PENGU became the fifth project of Binance HODLer as soon as it was launched; USUAL and BIO have successively landed on Binance Launchpool, and the two projects have received investments from Binance Labs respectively.

At the end of 2024, Binance continued to maintain its hot spot leading effect, HODLer, Launchpool and other BNB "welfare launchers" were fully utilized, and the emerging project "excavator" Binance Alpha platform has begun to accumulate power in the wallet. This behemoth in the crypto asset market has begun to exert its strength towards 2025.

As the United States began to build a "cryptocurrency capital" after Trump entered the White House, 2025 showed a positive side for Binance and the entire crypto asset industry. Although there are still many uncertainties in the future, there are three things that are likely to be realized in the Binance ecosystem, which will also be directly related to its 250 million users.

BNB continues to reach new highs and is expected to reach more than $1,000

BNB is not far from the highest point again.

On December 28, with the launch of the 63rd project BIO Protocol (BIO) on Binance Launchpool, BNB, as one of the locked assets, rose to $730, while $795 was the historical highest price created by BNBhain's native token and Binance ecological asset BNB on December 4.

"Instead of waiting for ETH to reach a new high, it is better to wait for BNB to break $1,000." On social media, a crypto asset investor expressed his helplessness about the top 2 in the crypto asset market and his confidence in the top 5.

Indeed, throughout 2024, it seems that only the "coin king" Bitcoin (BTC) has contributed a wonderful performance in the crypto asset market, with $70,000, $90,000, and $100,000, charging forward like a no-man's land; when people expect Ethereum (ETH), the "second in command", to break historical records like BTC in the past, it has broken the defense of holders with a 46.3% increase this year, and its performance is far inferior to that of BNB (BNBChain), SOL (Solana) and other competing chain assets.

Coingecko data shows that as of 14:00 on December 31, 2024 (UTC+8), BNB's year-to-date increase was 120%, far higher than ETH, and even higher than BTC's 119% in the Top 10 market capitalization (excluding USDT and USDC) rankings.

Top 10 data of crypto assets (excluding stablecoins) as of 14:00 on December 31 (UTC+8)

Throughout 2024, BNB's K-line trend rarely showed sudden surges or cliff-like declines. As a whole, it showed a fluctuating upward trend following BTC, which is very "long-termist".

This continued positive trend is largely due to the strong empowerment of Binance - several income tools in the trading platform are deeply bound to BNB user holdings. Among them, LaunchPool, which distributes new assets almost every month, and HODLer, which was newly launched this year, encourage users to continue holding BNB.

Taking the data of the 19 completed activities of Binance Launchpool this year as an example, the total stake of BNB is between 11 million and 26 million. Although the total stake of FDUSD, another staking-supported staking, is between 1 billion and 3 billion in most projects, the number of participants (ranging from more than 80,000 to more than 200,000) is not as high as BNB (ranging from more than 110,000 to more than 260,000), which shows that BNB users hold a lot of positions. This may be related to the APY (annualized return) of new assets obtained by users. The data shows that the conservative APY of new assets obtained by staking FDUSD is between 18%-98%, while the conservative APY of BNB's staking income is between 27%-236%, which is higher than FDUSD overall.

This does not include the potential increase in BNB's earnings. Users may be more inclined to pledge BNB due to the higher potential rate of return. This is an important reason why BNB can maintain its holdings among the user base and drive the price to gradually rise.

In addition, the recent Binance HODLer airdrop event has also become an important force for BNB's rise. The HODLer airdrop is a reward program specifically for BNB holders. It is based on a snapshot of BNB balances and airdrops tokens to users who use BNB subscriptions or fixed-term Simple Earn products. These assets will become part of the income after Binance is launched.

In 2024, Binance HODLer has completed the airdrop of 5 new assets. The token PENGU of NFT IP Pudgy Penguins is the recent hot spot. During the MOVE airdrop from December 2nd to 5th, BNB once rose from US$647 to US$740, an increase of more than 14%.

Compared with the above methods that can directly lock liquidity, BNB's deflation model since its issuance seems to be insufficient. However, the continuous destruction of BNB is still being executed in accordance with the contract, and it will decrease every quarter. As of now, the circulation of BNB is about 145 million. At the current destruction rate, its total amount will drop to 100 million in about four years.

As long as Binance continues to provide sufficient support, there seems to be no more certain asset in the crypto asset market than BNB, which to a certain extent represents the market's expectations for the trading platform.

On December 3, Javon Marks, a crypto asset analyst with 48,000 followers, tweeted that BNB will reach a new historical high driven by the bull market, and the current value may increase to $2,000.

Analyst Javon Marks's prediction tweet

This prediction may be radical, but BNB, which has already touched a high of $795, is not far from $1,000. In 2025, this may be a matter of several issues of Lauchpool accompanying the rising market.

Next year is the second year after the fourth Bitcoin halving. According to historical market rules, the climax of the bull market often occurs in the year after the halving. More importantly, the United States, an important part of the crypto asset market, is showing a friendly attitude towards the crypto industry. With market trends and a friendly environment, Marks' prediction is not impossible.

Trump Crypto Friendly   Binance Compliance Expansion

In 2025, the crypto industry's definite move is to keep a close eye on Donald Trump, the annual topic figure who was re-elected as the President of the United States and brought "Bitcoin" into the public eye.

Trump's series of promises during the campaign, such as "establishing a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin" and "making the United States the capital of cryptocurrencies", will undoubtedly benefit the crypto asset market. As a crypto asset trading platform with 250 million users, Binance is bound to reap this wave of dividends, and it has also been making various preparations for compliance development.

The first good thing for the entire crypto industry happened on November 21, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that its 33rd chairman, Gary Gensler, will step down on January 20, 2025. Trump will fulfill his promise to "fire the current SEC chairman on his first day in office."

Many of Gensler's actions during his tenure as SEC chairman have severely cracked down on the crypto asset industry, including prosecuting related companies for fraud and money laundering and imposing billions of dollars in fines. His enforcement targets include top crypto asset companies such as Binance and Coinbase - the SEC accused these companies of operating unregulated exchanges and providing unregistered securities, and the allegations were repeatedly refuted by Binance and Coinbase in court on the grounds that the SEC lacked sufficient evidence.

Paul Atkins, the new SEC chairman nominated by Trump, is the CEO of consulting firm Patomak Global Partners, whose clients are spread across the financial and crypto asset industries. Some media analysts pointed out that if Atkins takes over as SEC chairman, he may help formulate key regulations for industries that Trump is keen on, or usher in a clearer and more relaxed regulatory approach for the crypto industry.

SEC's lawsuits against Binance and other crypto companies have always been the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads, and changes in management may bring about a turnaround in these lawsuits. Some companies have already begun to work on refuting the SEC's allegations.

In the view of Binance CEO Richard Teng, Trump's entry into the White House will be the beginning of a "golden age" because confidence in the cryptocurrency industry is high, which will lead to a large number of new US regulators being open to digital currencies.

Some analysts predict that as the United States includes Bitcoin in its reserves, more large companies and even some countries will also include Bitcoin in their balance sheets, and Trump's promise to "cancel capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions" will be more conducive to this trend, and even lead some small countries to follow suit, which will be conducive to the development of the crypto industry everywhere.

A policy-friendly environment cannot be achieved overnight. Binance's choice is to continue to increase its investment in compliance and reserve compliance resources for expansion.

As of October 2024, Binance has achieved the 20th global regulatory milestone after completing its registration in Argentina, that is, obtaining licenses and registrations in 20 jurisdictions around the world, including legal registrations in France, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Mexico, El Salvador, South Africa, India, Argentina and other countries, covering Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and Africa. This ranks first in the entire crypto asset exchange industry.

Internally, Binance has invested a lot of energy, tools, technology and resources to prevent risk pollution and protect the security of users' assets. Throughout 2024, more than 15,000 warnings were sent to users every day, helping users recover $9.1 million in funds, with 80 successful recoveries per month, preventing a total loss of more than $129 million, and blacklisting 47,000 malicious addresses.

Externally, Binance has maintained communication and cooperation with law enforcement agencies in many countries. From January to mid-November 2024, the Binance Compliance Team has responded to more than 55,700 law enforcement requests and served more than 13,800 registered law enforcement officers.

With continuous security and compliance reserves, Binance has ushered in a synchronized growth with the global digital asset adoption rate. In 2024, Binance user funds deposits reached US$21.6 billion. According to DefiLlama data, this deposit volume is 36% higher than the total inflow of the next 10 exchanges ($15.9 billion). As of mid-December, its global user base has grown to nearly 250 million people, and the growth rate of institutional users has doubled compared to last year.

User asset storage data of centralized trading platforms

CCData data shows that Binance has become the first centralized crypto asset exchange with a total trading volume of more than 100 trillion US dollars in 2024. This achievement highlights the trading platform's strong advantages in scale, liquidity and user trust.

The crypto industry in 2025 will usher in a friendly environment in the United States, a major region. Binance, which is good at seizing opportunities, will surely take advantage of the trend to grow, and its goal of 1 billion users will be accelerated in 2025.

Alpha adds "shovel"  BNBChain buries "gold mine"

In 2025, another event worth noting is the growth of BNB Chain, which is related to the long-term value of the chain's native asset BNB, and also represents Binance's layout in the decentralized Web3 world.

When Ethereum's innovative applications decreased and efficiency became more and more important, and when Solana was reborn from the dead with Meme coins, BNB Chain completed the transformation from speed increase, protocol enrichment to experience upgrade under the goal of continuously enhancing scalability in the past year, and the substantial growth of the chain's locked value (TVL) followed.

In 2024, BNB Chain completed the transition to a single-chain structure, migrated the functions of the BNB beacon chain to the BNB Smart Chain (BSC), and eliminated the beacon chain; in addition, through opBNB and Greenfield solutions, the scalability and storage capacity of the BNB Chain network have been significantly improved. Among them, the Layer2 solution opBNB supports a high gas limit of 100 million per second, achieving 4,600 transactions per second (TPS), exceeding the benchmark of Layer2 solutions such as Optimism on Ethereum.

Among them, BSC's high throughput capacity enables an average of nearly 4 million transactions per day in 2024, which is 2.5% more than in 2023; while opBNB processes an average of 7.1 million transactions per day. At the same time, BSC's average transaction fee remains at $0.03 per transaction, which is still competitive compared to blockchains such as Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Avalanche; and opBNB has lowered its average transaction fee to only $0.001 this year.

High performance and low fees also directly upgrade the trading experience, and users have become active. According to the BNB Chain 2024 Annual Report, by the end of 2024, opBNB's average DAU (daily active users) will reach 4.7 million, and BSC will reach 1.12 million.

BNB Chain daily activity data

At the same time, users are also pouring into the BNB Chain ecological protocol with their assets. In 2024, BSC's total locked value (TVL) achieved significant growth, from US$3.5 billion in January to US$5.7 billion by the end of 2024, a growth rate of 62%. This achievement can be seen in the fact that DefiLlama ranks in the top 5 among the 342 chain data included, after Ethereum, Solana, Tron and Bitcoin.

BSC Chain's TVL ranks in the top 5 (as of December 25)

Noah proposed that the key elements of building a strong compliance program can be divided into two categories: one is technology and resources, and the other is culture. He believes that Binance needs to have strong technical defenses, including in-depth transaction monitoring, security infrastructure, risk management mechanisms, and a robust operating framework.

In 2024, BNB Chain made significant progress in enhancing its security framework, with total financial losses falling from $162 million to $53 million, a 67% reduction compared to 2023.

In terms of user experience, BNB Chain is also constantly strengthening its connection with external demands. For example, in order to promote affordable stablecoin transfers, BNB Chain launched the "Gas-Free Carnival" program on September 19, 2024, which exempted the Gas fees for transferring or withdrawing stablecoins such as USDT, FDUSD and USDC on BNB Smart Chain (BSC) and opBNB, directly improving the use of stablecoins and user experience in the entire ecosystem.

The on-chain hotspot in 2024 is Meme. With the increase in the application of AI concepts such as AI Meme on the chain, the on-chain hotspot in 2025 is likely to be derived from AI. To this end, BNB Chain is ready to combine BSC's high throughput and low transaction costs, opBNB's fast processing for real-time response, and BNB Greenfield's secure, decentralized data storage to provide a powerful platform for AI-driven applications.

This year, AI projects have seen significant growth on BNB Chain, with projects such as MyShell, Holoworld AI, Sleepless AI, ChainGPT, NFPrompt, DIN, etc. attracting a large number of users' attention.

In addition, on December 17, the emerging crypto project discovery platform Binance Alpha entered the display page of the Web3 wallet. This is a new tool that will exist as a "pre-listed token screening pool" before listing on the trading market, with the aim of increasing the transparency of the review of tokens listed on the Binance exchange.

Binance co-founder He Yi said in X Spaces on December 18 that because the BNB Chain ecosystem currently has a large amount of traffic and a concentration of hot projects, BNB Chain ecosystem projects will be the focus of Binance Alpha. As of December 24, the total number of Binance Alpha projects is 38.

With the continuous development of projects on the BNB Chain chain, it is bound to attract innovative projects to be built on the chain. This also means that in 2025, users who are keen on on-chain gold mining can "vote with their feet" on BNB Chain, just like the "DeFi Summer" of BSC in the previous cycle, and early investment projects are likely to become hot assets in the secondary market.