Analyzing the market performance and rise logic of 12 popular MEMEs from multiple angles

Author: Nancy, PANews

"Which CA should I buy today?"

With the endless emergence of MEME coins, players are happy to dig out potential "golden dogs". In some MEME groups, players share the CA (contract address) of the MEME coins they just bought. The innovative MEME launch platform has reduced the difficulty of issuing coins, and KOLs continue to drive various MEME projects to dominate the screen.

Although the MEMEs that can successfully run out are the few survivors among the thousands of newly launched MEMEs every day, how to grasp the potential stocks among the MEMEs that have successfully landed? Is the rise of the leading MEME accidental, and what characteristics are worth noting? To this end, this article sorts out the 12 popular MEME coins with higher market capitalization on Ethereum and Solana recently and their market performance (the selected targets are the projects with the same name with the highest market capitalization in each chain, as of October 18).

More than 70% of MEME became popular this year, and most of the amazing returns require holding for at least five months

According to CoinGecko data, as of October 18, the market value of the MEME sector has exceeded the $61 billion mark, setting a record high. Among them, 10 MEME coins have squeezed into the top 100 of the crypto market, including newcomers such as WIF, BONK and POPCAT in addition to veteran players such as Doge, SHIB and PEPE.

The 12 popular MEME coins selected all appeared after 2023, and most of them are popular projects this year, accounting for more than 70%. And from the perspective of market size, the cumulative market value of these projects has exceeded US$5.54 billion, accounting for nearly 9.1% of the overall market value of MEME, among which POPCAT, Neiro, MOG, SPX and SPX have the largest market size. This is enough to show the market participation of MEME.

From the perspective of the time for the tokens of each MEME project to reach a new high, it takes an average of 162.7 days, including BITCOIN (HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu), MOG, SPX and GIGA. It takes a long time, almost at least one year or even more, which shows that MEME that has been verified for a certain period of time is easier to be recognized by the community. MOODENG, GOAT and Daram all rose strongly to their highs in one month, and the shortest was only a few days. Of course, this is directly related to the current community heat.

From the perspective of the change in the number of addresses holding coins after the coin price reached a new high, the average increase was 39.3%. Among these MEME coins, the number of addresses of APU and MOODENG are far ahead with a growth rate of 135.7% and 119.9% ​​respectively. In contrast, the growth rates of projects such as BITCOIN, POPCAT and Neiro are not obvious, only 5.3%, 3.2% and 1.5% respectively. This may have an important relationship with the listing of mainstream exchanges, the accumulation of sufficient user base in the early stage, and the timing of price increases.

Not only that, these MEMEs have basically brought amazing returns. According to statistics, the average maximum return rate of 12 MEMEs exceeds 37,000 times. After excluding the extreme value of GIGA of 245,000 times, the average maximum increase of other MEME coins is 18,000 times, among which BITCOIN, SPX, MOODENG and GOAT are more eye-catching, while Daram and POPCAT lag behind. Of course, these return rates are only based on the backtest of market value data, and there are basically no players who can get all the gains, but some players still get thousands or even tens of thousands of times of floating profits.

Most of them experienced a large retracement, and the average holding value reached tens of thousands of dollars

When measuring the risk control ability of the currency price, the maximum retracement rate is undoubtedly one of the commonly used indicators, and it is also a psychological test for the holders. From the data, excluding GOAT and Daram, which have just become popular and are still in the rising channel, other MEME coins have experienced different degrees of retracement from their historical highs, with an average maximum retracement rate of about 49.1%. Among them, MICHI, APU, MOG and MOODENG have the largest declines, which are 87.7%, 87.5%, 71.1% and 65.4% respectively, which also means that their holders will face the risk of large losses if they buy at high points. In contrast, the maximum retracement rates of GIGA, FWOG, POPCAT and Neiro are all far below the average.

Not only that, in terms of the number of days for retracement repair, these projects take an average of about 23.9 days. Among them, MICHI, APU, MOG and MOODENG, which have the highest retracement rates mentioned above, also require more repair cycles, and some even take hundreds of days, while GIGA, BITCOIN, FWOG, POPCAT, SPX and Neiro only need single-digit repair time. The length of the currency price adjustment cycle will also affect the confidence of holders, and the longer the cycle.

In addition, from the perspective of the holding value of these 12 projects, after excluding the TOP10 currency holding addresses, the current average holding value is nearly US$9,837.6 (calculated based on the currency price on October 18). Among them, SPX, MOG, POPCAT, Neiro and BITCOIN have the highest holding values, which are US$26,560, US$17,504, US$16,337, US$15,120 and US$11,297 respectively, while Daram, GIGA, GOAT and MOODENG are lower than the average, all below US$5,000. If we look at the proportion of holding value and the highest increase multiple, POPCAT, Daram, FWOG and Neiro holders have higher investment costs, while GOAT, MOODENG and GIGA have less.

Analysis of the multiple logics behind the rise of MEME

From simple Internet memes to cultural narratives of tens of billions of dollars, the success of the above MEME projects may bring the following inspirations:

Withstanding the test of time and establishing a strong community consensus

HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu

Time is always one of the important tools to test value. Projects that go through a longer cycle are often more likely to gain market recognition. Take BITCOIN (HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu) as an example. This is an abstract MEME that combines various elements such as Harry Potter, Obama and Sony. It attracted attention in 2023 due to its surge. Since then, its price has experienced ups and downs for a year until it began to rise continuously in September this year. During this period, the number of BITCOIN holders has also continued to rise, achieving a nearly 88.2% increase in one year. SPX (SPX6900) is also an abstract MEME launched in 2023. The story is that an anime girl surpasses the market value of the S&P 500. Judging from the price trend, SPX has also experienced a long period of downturn until September this year. According to the analysis of Aunt Ai, an on-chain analyst, the Dev of the MEME and its associated addresses have not interacted with the project for a long time, and SPX has been completely handed over to the community.

Take POPCAT as an example. The market value of this MEME has exceeded 1.3 billion US dollars without being listed on the top exchanges. Behind it is a strong community. Although POPCAT's increase is not as good as other MEMEs, it has more than 77,000 addresses holding coins, which is also the largest number of holders among the above projects.

Use the wealth effect to enhance attractiveness

For many MEME players, the continuous decline of value coins has made them no longer "paid for", and the MEME field has become one of the means for the community to resist VCs. And a higher wealth effect is undoubtedly the simplest and crudest way for MEME to attract funds and new users, especially users with small capital can use a relatively low cost to leverage the returns with great imagination.

GigaChad

For example, GIGA (GigaChad) is used to commemorate the legendary Ernest Khalimov. Since its creation and launch, the highest increase has reached 245,000 times, far exceeding other MEME projects mentioned above; MOG (Mog Coin) is the first emoji cultural coin. Since its launch, it has risen by more than 16,000 times, and has nearly recovered all the losses after a sharp correction. MOG has also gained more and more supporters as its price has risen, and the number of addresses holding the currency has shown a steady growth trend.

Celebrity effect with its own communication power

MEME can also be understood as the realization of the attention economy. As a scarce economic resource, the stronger the ability of a project to gain attention, the more consensus it will have, and the greater the potential for growth. Among them, the celebrity effect often has attractiveness and communication power, and is also an important factor in the success of MEME in the past.

Apustaja

For example, APU (Apustaja) is one of the most widely used frog emoticons on the Internet. It is similar to the image of PEPE and also has a relatively strong cultural foundation. MOODENG is backed by the Internet celebrity animal Moo Deng, which has great influence and traffic support. According to the investigation of encrypted KOLRasmr, MOODENG is currently the most popular MEME coin among ordinary people in street surveys. However, this type of MEME is often affected by the changes in the value of the support behind it. For example, MOODENG's market value has fallen sharply after the enthusiasm of Moo Deng cooled down.

Use the first-launch effect to seize the user's mind

"Being the first is a shortcut to the mind." Among the many MEME narratives, novel narratives are often more likely to attract players. For example, GOAT (Goatseus Maximus) is the first MEME coin represented and promoted by AI, and with the fame of a16z, the MEME became an instant hit, achieving a market value of over US$300 million in just over a week, with the highest increase of over 24,000 times; Daram combines the properties of BRC20 and MEME, and opens the channel for the issuance of MEME assets, making its market size exceed US$50 million in just one week after its launch.