Bankless: Will this cycle skip Ethereum?

Author: Ryan Sean Adams, Bankless; Translator: Baishui, Golden Finance

“This bull cycle will skip Ethereum”.

I’ve heard this view among investors since at least September 2023.

The crypto market skipping them means that ETH is underperforming, such as ETH underperforming BTC or barely beating BTC.

Now, you can look at this from the perspective of people who don’t like Ethereum, who think that “Ethereum is dead” and has been replaced by “newer technology”. I think this is a boring one-dimensional view, and it’s obviously wrong. I am still a full-on ETH bull.

So let’s analyze it from the perspective of being bullish on Ethereum in the long term.

I’ve heard two views from ETH bulls.

1) Ethereum will be skipped this cycle

Why? Because Ethereum is going through an awkward emotional phase where it’s trying to mature and the world can’t understand this development period.

The biggest change in Ethereum this cycle is L2. This is Ethereum basically telling new users not to use the mainnet - “Hey, we’re too expensive, but the good news is we have 100 shiny new L2s that you’re going to love!”

Bridges, fragments, frustrations, repeat.

But L2 is Ethereum!

Yeah, yeah, I totally know that’s right. L2s are awesome, they’re the best long-term way to scale decentralization, and Vitalik’s vision… etc.

You don’t need to tell me - I’ve been modularizing since 2021, but the thing is, I’m not a new marginal buyer of ETH!

Who are the new buyers? This is memecoin Chad. This is app user Stacy. I’m TradFi Larry.

But Chad and Stacy are busy buying tokens on the chain they’re using, and there are 96 distractions on L2beat. Meanwhile, Larry is buying Bitcoin — do you think he really cares about on-chain cash flow right now?

But fragmentation is being addressed, and fundamentals are important because…

Ethereum is biting the bullet, taking the hard road, and going through its necessary awkward phases to become a mature and well-functioning, established blockchain.

It’s a long-term investment, but will it pay off in this bull cycle?

In this view? No. We skip this cycle.

2) ETH Bull Market is Coming

Now, let’s look at the second ETH Bull Market view…

You stupid narrative merchant! Of course, $10,000 ETH is coming…just wait. First BTC, then ETH! That’s how it happens!

In fact, you’d have to be a fool not to know how much stronger Ethereum is right now than it was in the 2020 cycle.

Ethereum has rock solid monetary economics. The world’s largest exchange is launching ETH L2. zkEVM is here. Unlimited L2 budgets are accelerating ETH technology. We’re on the brink of an ETH ETF! BlackRock is launching tokenized treasuries… need I say more?

Ethereum is the foundation for 1,000’s of chains, each with 1 million users.  

What about L2 chain fragmentation?

It’s 100% fixed. Meanwhile, other blockchains are taking on insane centralized debts that they’ll have to pay back eventually!

Overall, it’s only a matter of time before investors wake up and start valuing cash flow. ETH missing this cycle would be the dumbest outcome, and the likelihood is so small it’s barely worth considering. Yes, the ETH bull run is coming.