The current President of the United States, Joe Biden, announced his official withdrawal from the presidential election in the early morning of July 22 and expressed his support for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024. The news triggered violent swings in the prediction market Polymarket.
After Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, six bets related to Biden totaled nearly $80 million. These bets did not include bets related to running for the presidency. Among them, $51.5 million was bet on whether Biden would run on behalf of the Democratic Party, and another $27.5 million was bet on whether he would withdraw from the race. These bets will now be fully liquidated.
A user named "AnonBidenBull" on Polymarket lost nearly $2 million because he predicted that Biden would win the U.S. president. This user shows his Polymarket betting portfolio on his personal community X homepage.
Source:polymarket
On the other hand, with Biden withdrawing from the race, Harris' chances of accepting the Democratic nomination have increased. One user made a profit of nearly $769,000 by betting on He Jinli to become the Democratic candidate, with a return rate of more than 6,000%.
source:polymarke
Although Biden has expressed support for Harris, she will not automatically become the nominee. The Democratic Party still needs to choose the presidential candidate through online nomination voting. Currently, He Jinli has a higher chance of being nominated for the following three reasons:
Harris has a high reputation within the Democratic Party and is one of the popular candidates to take over.
According to federal campaign finance regulations, Harris is the only candidate who can directly use Biden's campaign funds after Biden withdraws from the race.
According to the prediction platform Polymarket, Harris' chances of accepting the Democratic nomination have increased to 84%.
The market for political meme coins also experienced wild swings after Biden dropped out of the election. The price of Biden concept coin $Boden plummeted, while Harris-related meme coins quickly rose.
boden price Source: dexscreener
Here are the price and market capitalization changes of each related meme coin:
KAMA price source:dexscreener
The news of Biden's withdrawal not only affected the US political arena, but also caused huge fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. Gamblers' losses and gains, as well as the price movements of related meme coins, reflect the market's heightened sensitivity to political events.
The scale of crypto prediction platforms is experiencing explosive growth and is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend in the next few years.
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